Whoa is it draft szn already? Time flies when your economy is crashing and the world is on the brink of WW3. On the bright side, I will be making this mock available as an NFT.
Now the usual disclaimers:
1. My rankings are hastily assembled and only feature players I’ve had “time” to watch. So if you are wondering, “hey where the f is Rawjerr Cranberries on your WR list”, well, I didn’t get a chance to watch anything on Rawjerr Cranberries so he’s not on the list. I may look at him later and think he’s awesome. But that leads me to number 2.
2. When I say I spent some time watching a guy, I mean that I most likely spent no more than like 5 minutes. There are hundreds of these guys and this is not my job, as in real life I am the guy who watches the urinals through that little glass hole and flushes them after each use. I just simply don’t have enough time or patience to spend what it would require of both to actually make a good mock draft.
3. On top of that, I don’t really know what I’m doing. Like when I watch a left guard it basically boils down to “hmm do I think this guy is good or not good, he sure blocked that other guy really nice there yeah he’s good”. This ranks me a distant 32nd among NFL GMs in competence, ahead of only Trent Baalke.
4. I don’t have the inside information that NFL teams have. For example, most people had Teven Jenkins in the first round in 2020. However, medical checks showed something with his back that scared teams off a bit and dropped him to the 2nd. I also don’t know how these players interview or what their college coaches say about them.
5. NOBODY knows how these guys are actually going
to turn out. NFL teams spend milllllllions of dollars on this process and even
the best teams miss a lot more than they don’t miss. Every jump, be it from high
school to college or college to the NFL, has a lot of variables that are tough
to determine. Here were the top college recruits in the 2015 class according to
SI:
1.
Byron Cowart
2.
Josh Rosen
3.
Iman Marshall
4.
Martez Ivey
5.
Derwin James
6.
Kahlil McKenzie
7.
Trenton Thompson
8.
Damien Harris
9.
Calvin Ridley
10.
Terry Godwin
I have heard of four of those guys.
It’s like each level is a different planet with a different atmosphere and you
can do all the testing you want, it’s still going to be difficult to determine
how something will react to it until you actually place them in that
environment.
6. An apparently still little-known secret – even in the first round, most of these guys won’t be all that good. On average, only about 38% of first rounders make even a single Pro Bowl in their careers. But yet every year you read “the Saints have a glaring hole at ILB, but with the selection of Chernobilus Poppyseed will turn the position from a weakness to a strength”. Uhhh, no it probably won’t. He’s probably not going to be all that great and even if he is it won’t be for a few years. There are very few Micah Parsonses in this world.
7. In that vein, if you like or don’t like a guy, keep liking or don’t liking them even if I or someone else disagrees. Like I said, no one knows anything. I thought Justin Herbert and Josh Allen would suck and that Corey Coleman would be a star.
8. This is a hybrid of what I would do and what I think will happen. It’s not exclusively one or the other. That is because this is for entertainment and not an entry into a mock draft competition, which would be a dumb thing to spend time on.
9. Trades happen in every single first round. If you don’t have any trades in a mock draft then it is occurring in a different reality. Which is fine, I’m just saying.
10.
Everything in this mock is guaranteed to happen
100% as I predict it will.
Now, about this draft. Everyone says this draft is weak, and
they are probably right. To me it’s the weakest draft since 2013. It is not as
bad as 2013, because nothing is and nothing ever will be, but it’s closer than
you’d like. That means that it may not cost as much to move up but also means that
everyone on Twitter screaming “trade down!” is an idiot who likes to say “all
these QBs suck” and then suggest trading the pick to a team that ones a shitty
QB in their next breath.
However, I also thought 2011 would suck and that became arguably the greatest first round in the history of the draft. Similarly in 2017 everyone said “all these QBs suck there’s no first round QB wait until next year”. Well, that draft included Pat Mahomes and Deshaun Watson and the next year featured Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold in the top 3. You just don’t know so don’t get all up in arms before your teams player actually plays a real game.
Let’s get started. Here are my positional rankings in a vacuum,
as schemes do matter and I don’t know everyone’s scheme because come on man.
Oh, also there’s no gifs this year as that just takes way too much time. RAS
refers to “Relative Athletic Score” (https://ras.football/), which was created
by a guy named Kent Lee Platte and combines all athletic testing metrics and height/weight
(ie running 4.38 at 300 lbs is more impressive than doing it at 190 lbs) into
one single number from 0 to 10. It’s basically a percentile for each position.
Finally “Best Case/Worst Case” is dumb and for everyone best case is Hall of
Famer and worst case is out of football immediately, but it’s generally a top
end for a similar-ish player and a bottom end or more “if a guy fails, here’s
why I think it will happen”.
NOTE: "cast" should be "case", ie "best case", and I don't really want to go through and change all these.
DEFENSE:
1. Jacksonville Jaguars – AIDAN HUTCHINSON, EDGE, MICHIGAN
This is such a shit year to have the top pick. And while you
can’t feel too bad for the Jags as they have the top pick every year and will for
the next few decades, this is rather unfortunate for them. It’s not quite Eric
Fisher bad but it’s bad. I think you could argue for 10 guys from last year as
the potential number 1 pick in this draft.
Hutchinson has the athletic pedigree you want from the top pick at least. He’s strong
as balls, he’s got size, he’s explosive and he put up big numbers at Michigan. He’s
got a motor that runs hot and all kinds of similar idioms. But for me,
something is just missing. From an edge rusher taken at the very top of a draft
I would prefer if he beat some blockers cleanly for some quick pressures but I
don’t see a ton of that. He’s not great in space (ie 4-3 only), he doesn’t
appear to be particularly flexible, and he’s being blocked by one guy all of
the damn time. Now he did have David Ojabo on the other side, but still. You
can’t give any extra attention to the number one overall pick? I’ve read that
he has short arms which may explain my perception of Hutchinson as a “block
magnet”, and I don’t know how much that’s going to matter. On the plus side,
this is almost exactly the same player I saw in Joey Bosa, and I didn’t like
Joey Bosa. But Joey Bosa is awesome and absolutely worth a number one overall
pick.
In the end I think the Jags take the guy with the freakish strength/speed
measurables to have a JJ Watt type of ceiling and the production to match, but
then again this is Trent Baalke so don’t rule out a backup safety from UNLV.
I would trust Balki Bartokomous to make this pick more than I trust Trent Baalke. There is a lot of noise about Travon Walker for this pick and he may remind
Baalks of Aldon Smith so I don’t dismiss it, but that’s quite the leap of
faith. If that were indeed the case you could potentially see them trade this
pick to a team that wants Hutchinson but in the end I think they just take the Michigan
Man to instill some Michigan Values in the locker room. We’re the victors and
the best. Man I can’t stand that school.
TRADE ALERT HOLY SHIT TRADE TIME PICKS HAVE EXCHANGED HANDS
NEW YORK GIANTS acquire the 2nd overall pick from
DETROIT in exchange for the 6th pick and uhhh I don’t know, maybe
their 2nd rounder and a 3rd next year or something
2. New York Giants – KAYVON THIBODEAUX, EDGE, OREGON
After mocking Hutchinson to the Jags, I’m already lost at
pick 2 trying to figure out what Detroit would do. There’s no standout
selection here, and Detroit has a pressing need at *checks notes* every single
position. Thibodeaux is considered the 1b edge guy by many but, well, I for one
have a lot of questions about him and secondly there are rumors that he’s not
the most dedicated. Does that sound like a kneecap biter? For the record Oregon
has refuted these rumors and I don’t know if they are true or not but I do know
who Dan Campbell is and I think this will matter.
Now, you’ve got a guy here who looks like Robocop and who
may not be quite as committed off the field as he is on it. I have a weird
hunch that the Giants see shades of LT and become enamored with the thought of
adding somebody like Thibs. Similar to the 2013 trade that netted the Dolphins
professional molly taster Dion Jordan, you can probably move into the top 3 for
pennies on the dollar this year. And with the glut of good but not elite edges
and OL available, wouldn’t it make sense for Detroit to wait a few more spots
before deciding which 22-year-old’s life they want to ruin?
But enough about the Loins, what about Thibs? This guy looks
the part; it’s like someone put Megatron at OLB. He has the athletic testing
and the pedigree to justify this spot. He does get a ton of blocking attention
from offenses. But it’s like he just doesn’t have any idea what he’s doing.
There’s no plan. Sometimes whatever he does works and it looks really good, but
most of the time it’s like he just runs into the OT and hopes for the best. And
while he did spend a lot of time playing outside contain which explains some of
the good but not great production, he was often just butchering that responsibility.
People said that he single-handedly beat UCLA, so I watched it and no, he did
not single-handedly beat UCLA. He had 3 sacks which, yeah, great, but only one was
truly impressive and another was against a solo block by a…tight end? But what
was truly concerning to me in this game was his absolute nonchalance about hit
outside responsibilities. This dude bit on like 7 fakes in this game and just
gave up huge runs in his wake. Oregon had him playing a Randy Gregory type role
but Thibodeaux is NOT Randy Gregory. If he improves with NFL coaching he could
certainly be a star in the NFL but teams always say that and it so rarely actually
works out, and I don’t like spending #2 overall picks on guys like that.
3. Houston Texans – EVAN NEAL, OT, ALABAMA
This is another tough one. The Texans also need every single
position. And I mean every single position. Their depth chart is like a list of
Len’s greatest hits, just a bunch of random stuff you’ve absolutely never heard
of. There isn’t even any sunshine on this roster to steal. Unfortunately there’s
not a lot available in this draft either.
The Texans, much like Alex Smith’s leg, can really go in any
direction here. Is it too early for Kyle Hamilton or one of the top corners? Do
they take a high upside edge like Travon Walker? Do they shock the world and overdraft
a receiver? Nah. I think they stay true
to their NSFW offensive tackle fetish and take Evan Neal. Neal looks like a guy
who could one day be a Hall of Famer. He also looks like he could be on another
team’s roster in three years.
The good: He is an enormous human, yet he’s still quick
enough to push speed rushers up the arc. He’s strong and has great hand
placement – him and Charles Cross are light years ahead of everyone else IMO. You
probably won’t hear a bunch of morons yelling HOLDING every time he blocks
someone. If Neal lands his punch then the play is over for that particular rusher.
So Hall of Famer, right?
Well, there are pros and cons for everyone. I love watching
OL flatten cornerbacks in space; Neal looks like a drunk moose in space. For
all of his success against outside rushes, I saw him out of position quite a
bit on interior rushes. I assume Houston uses zone blocking concepts like most
teams and Neal needs work at that. He didn’t participate in the Combine, and OT
is a position where that is very important in determining who is elite and who
is not elite. Finally and this may have just been me seeing things but he surprisingly
doesn’t appear to be all that explosive when run blocking, which is odd given
that he is in pass protection. And it also seemed like he would lean forwards
at times as if he were compensating for that slow get-off (Pornhub category alert)
and it isn’t exactly ideal for your OT to be have a near-false start habit. He’s
a rare bird. This is a draft full of rare birds. Where are my binoculars?
If I had to guess, I think Neal has a good career and makes
multiple Pro Bowls, so he’s my pick here.
4. New York Jets – CHARLES CROSS, OT, MISSISSIPPI STATE
Another team that needs everything, but all the peeps are saying
they are going to take a tackle and I’m going to take their word for it.
Charles Cross does everything right, he’s very technically
sound and has great hands just like Neal. He’s quick into his pass sets and he
really understands the “one arm is longer than two” principle better than most,
which allows him to keep pass rushers from getting into his body and moving
him. But…he’s not dominant. I know what you’re thinking, “you don’t get any
points for dominating, this is the NFL not a Hollywood audition”, and yeah, you’re
right. We already know from Tyreek Hill that the players don’t have safe words.
However I would argue that Charles Cross has not shown “that he can block”. He’s
shown that he can block….college players. And if I’m going to project a guy
against bigger and stronger competition I’d preferably see a little bit more
domination against smaller, weaker ones. Yeah it’s nice that you blocked the guy,
but just dominate him a little bit. Put him on the ground, I don’t know, whip him
and handcuff him to the pylon. My safe word is “Omaha”.
While I like Cross and his sound technique reminds me a bit
of a Rashawn Slater type, he’s not in Rashawn Slater’s league athletically and
he doesn’t play as strong as Slater. I fear that he’s going to be like an Eric
Fisher type. If I’m wrong he might end up with one of those ho-hum borderline
HoF careers like D’Brickashaw Ferguson had.
5. Detroit Lions – TRAVON WALKER, EDGE, GEORGIA
If Detroit sticks with their pick and takes a guy at #2, it
will probably be Walker. I am not buying the Malik Willis type – there are a few
teams who can afford to wait until next year, and the Lions are one of them –
and outside of QB their offensive roster isn’t like, disgraceful or anything.
This isn’t Atlanta. They’ve got pieces on the OL, a theoretically good young
tight end, and…well they could use a WR but this draft is very deep at that
position so it would be ludicrous to take a WR here. Danny C ain’t gonna do
that shit. Give him somebody for the trenches.
Travon Walker is that guy. His athletic testing numbers* are
insane, he was the single most athletic edge rusher to enter the draft (since
1987) by RAS numbers and has since dropped all the way down to second. He’d be
number 1 if he weighed in one pound heavier. He’s a rare, rare athlete at a
position full of them.
The issue with Walker is….is he an edge rusher? Yeah he’s
270 lbs and moves like a corner, but this guy has no rush moves whatsoever. He
also doesn’t appear to be all that flexible which can lead to your Jadaveon
Clowneys, the guys who are incredible athletes and disruptive players but they
just can’t finish and turn pressures into sacks because they can’t turn and get
to the QB in time. Sure Clowney was DPOY once but that’s your ceiling if you
can’t bend.
Speaking of Clowney, that’s who Walker reminds me of. He has
the same burst that Clowney used to decapitate that Michigan RB back in the day
and he’s strong as f but at least Clowney looked like he knew what he was doing.
On the bright side he pretty much has to play in a 4-3 and while I don’t know
what Campbell has done with the scheme, the Lions have generally been one of
the 4-3-iest teams in the NFL as long as I’ve paid attention. MORE LIKE BORE-3
HAHA
*These numbers seem to keep getting better and better and
a few quick checks of the database suggest that in the past few years, the amount
of players in the 95% percentile and better have doubled. One reason is more
players in the database (before recently it was really just Combine numbers,
now there are readily accessible pro day info for all kinds of guys who have
next to no shot at making the NFL), a second potential reason is that the track
in Indianapolis (and obvs the pro day stopwatches) have gotten faster. So take
these with a slight grain of salt; that being said these dudes are still
freakshows.
6. Carolina Panthers – KENNY PICKETT, QB, PITTSBURGH
I’m going to believe the rumors on this one and slot Kenneth
Pickett to the Panthers.
If you’ve heard one thing about this year’s draft, you’ve probably
heard that there’s no way Charleston Rambo is worth a 6th round
pick. If you’ve heard a second thing, I’m sure it’s the opinion that all of the
QBs in this draft class suck and teams should wait until next year to draft
one.
Well, it’s true, they mostly do all suck, at least against
what you’d expect from a good NFL starter. But to me the one guy who doesn’t
suck is Pickett. As for the second part, yeah, that’s great, wait until next
year. But uhhh you know, all the other teams drafting in the top 10 with
shit-ass rosters who need QBs? Yeah they are also going to go 4-13 next year
and I’m sure they will also realize that these really good prospects are indeed
really good. I’ve already mentioned that 2017/2018 thing above but again teams passed
on Patrick Mahomes to get a shot at Baker and Darnold so who the hell knows. And
let’s not act like the 49ers didn’t just trade away like 8 first round picks to
take Trey fuckin’ Lance 3rd overall.
Now, Pickett. Groupthink is powerful. It labeled Trevor Lawrence a generational
talent last year as he Ryan Leaf-ed his way through the SEC. Groupthink had
Robert Gallery as the safest prospect basically ever. It made Jeff Okudah a
surefire superstar. And in this case I think it’s being used against Pickett.
Pickett has major red flags for sure, but they aren’t mentioned as much as
scoutspeak shit like “oh I don’t understand his progressions” and “can he hit
this in a tighter NFL window” and all that stuff that yeah it’s important but
it’s often in my opinion used by people to justify preconceived opinions. Kenny
Pickett throws balls into incredibly small windows to mostly shitty wideouts
and he did it just about every single week. And half the time, the receivers
would drop it. His number 1 WR is good but the rest look like complete scrubs.
The blocking was mostly bad but he still operated the shit out of that offense.
Would people be more impressed if he put up better numbers with Ja’Marr Chase
and Justin Jefferson, or if he played at Alabama in Mac Jones’s offense with
everyone wide the f open all the time?
So what’s the bad? Well, he was a 5th year senior
that sucked ass for the first four years and then just randomly exploded in
year 5. I cannot find a single comparable outside of, ehhh kinda Joe Burrow and
maybe Gardner Minshew but both of those are stretches. Burrow is closer in that
he was like 8th string QB at Ohio State, had a meh year at LSU and
then as a 23 year old 5th year senior just exploded onto the scene.
That’s basically what Kenny Pickett did, but he was a starter basically the
whole time. It’s unheard of. And he
oddly plays just like Burrow. They are quite similar to me.
So what changed? I found an article from 2018 that mentioned
Pickett as a potential breakout candidate so the talent seems to have been
there. Watching some games from 2020, to me the difference is that Pickett used
to regularly make absolutely insane decisions and then he suddenly stopped. How
did you lower the frequency, Kenneth? Was it because you he was a 5th
year senior and he’ll have to do it over again in the NFL or did something just
click? Yeah he has other flags, he bails from clean pockets regularly like Sam
Darnold did and there are some concerns about his arm strength and his tiny baby
hands, and I guess his name is “pick it”, but the decision making thing for me
is the make or break here. Will he become a poor man’s Joe Burrow or a weird
man’s Josh Rosen?
7. New York Giants – KYLE HAMILTON, SAFETY, NOTRE DAME
Alright, everyone has the Giants taking a tackle with one of
their two picks. But I don’t. I just don’t love the idea of taking Ekwonu this
high and it’s not like the Giants are some great roster that just needs a
tackle and they’re set. They have like, 7 NFL players on this team. Plus they
fired Joe Judge, so that huge line of players begging him to come to NJ have
probably changed their minds. So just take BPA.
There are a lot of people who think Hamilton is the best
player in this draft. I’m not one of them, but I think he’s one of the top players
in this draft. And I have always balked at the conventional wisdom that safety
and center are just not high value positions. I watched Troy Polamalu and Ed
Reed do too much cool shit to think safeties don’t matter. I also watched Sean
Davis and Terrell Edmunds. The Giants themselves watched Landon Collins nearly win
DPOY (I still can’t believe that almost happened). So in reality NYG will
probably go OT, but in my fake non-reality they are taking an eraser to catch
all of the errant throws by Wentz and Hurts.
Hamilton was both a true centerfield safety and a box hammer
(another Pornhub tag!) when he was at Notre Dame. He’s big (6’4” 220), covers
the whole field and just always seems to put himself in the right spot. He
clearly has a great awareness and feel for the game and he’s often blowing up
runs at the snap or running into a passing lane as if he knew what the play
was. Because he probably did know what the play was. You can man him up on TEs,
put him into deep halves or thirds, let him lurk underneath, whatever. Gregggg
Williams would have him 100 yards deep.
As for the bad, well, he ran a lot slower than people
expected at the Combine. 4.59 isn’t like Darian Thompson bad, but it’s mildly
concerning for a guy whose primary calling card is “running across the entire
field to break up a pass”. It suggests that his ability was based heavily on recognition,
which yeah that’s great and you’d like your safeties to do smart stuff and not
do dumb stuff but you don’t necessarily know how that’s going to project to an
NFL where players are faster and things are disguised better. No more Bobby
Valentine!
In addition to that he sometimes assumes wrong and gets beat
the other way, but Troy Polamalu basically trademarked this and it’s just going
to happen with players like Hamilton. He also takes bad angles a lot, as if he’s
not as fast as he thinks he is. There’s a lot of Polamalu-esque stuff here –
Polamalu famously was called Bustamalu for a year and he sucked so badly in practices
that the Steelers thought they made a tremendous mistake. So yeah, I think he’ll
be ok. The slow 40 did sink Darian Thompson, a guy I liked and also a Giants
draft pick, and I did like Thompson a lot that year and see Hamilton as a
similar college player. However Thompson’s 40 along with his entire combine was
atrocious. Hamilton is an elite athlete who just ran a littttle bit slower than
people thought. He’ll be fine.
8. Atlanta Falcons – DRAKE LONDON, WR, USC
I had the Falcons picking Malik Willis here, because like,
they need a QB desperately, and Willis is from Atlanta, but…the Trash Birds
could conceivably have the number one overall pick next year. They will be just
fine if they wait and get a better prospect that isn’t from Atlanta.
Now if they don’t go QB, they can go…just about anywhere
holy heck is the bottom of the league bad right now. These teams have just
absolute garbage rosters without much hope for things getting better in the
near future. I don’t remember there being this many hopeless trash teams
before. Is this normal?
While the biggest need for the Falcons is listed in most sites
as Edge, they are also desperate for receivers, particularly after Calvin
Ridley bet on games without going through Dan Snyder’s accountants and ended up
with a yearlong suspension. And he was already away from the team for personal
reasons at the time sooooo yeah he’s probably not coming back. Enter Drake
London. (Don’t actually enter him without his consent)
Drake London fits the mold that the Falcons seem to like as
a big playmaking receiver and I think they might see him as their Julio Jones
replacement over a burner-type in Jameson Williams coming off a major injury.
London is tall but he moves like a much smaller receiver and he’s constantly Mossing
the shit out of people. When not doing that he’s often taking screens to the
house or making DeAndre Hopkins catches on the sidelines. He’s fuckin’ good.
Well I mean obviously, I’m mocking him 8th overall, but still.
Don’t be fooled though, this isn’t Julio Jones. While I
think he has significantly more WR-skill than Julio (but then again so do most
NFL WRs), he’s nowhere near the athlete. Julio Jones was an absolute top-tier
interplanetary specimen. Drake London is more like Mike Evans. Yeah that’s
still awesome but it’s a different type of player. Man, Marcus Mariota is gonna
throw so many screens this year YOU BETTER GET READY NFC SOUTH HERE COMES THE
MARIOTA TRAIN
Seattle Seahawks trade down for no real reason
9. Houston Texans – JERMAINE JOHNSON, EDGE, FLORIDA STATE
Until the Seahawks stay in their dumb spot one year and
actually make a pick, I will continue to move them down every in single mock. It’s
like Pete Carroll thinks that drafting in their original spot is what caused
9/11. And they’re gonna do it again, because Pete KNOWS that jet fuel don’t melt
steel beams.
So who’s taking this bait? I considered having the Commanders
(LOL) move up to snatch away Derek Stingley from the Jets, but then I’d have to
come up with a new strategy for the Jets and honestly I just don’t really want
to do that. I absolutely am not going to will into existence the Steelers
trading up for Willis. Since I had the Texans take an OT at #3, they still desperately
need an edge rusher and there’s only one guy left from the consensus “top”
group, and that’s Jermaine Johnson. I think he’s using a fake name but I’ll
allow it.
Johnson checks the athleticism box, he’s an excellent run
defender (which gives him a higher floor and makes him much more playable), he’s
got power and he puts up a bunch of very good pass rush reps that make you
think, oh hey, this is an NFL edge rusher. He has some Brian Burns in him, just
a bendy athlete whipping a tackle and earning a sack.
However I don’t love him as much as a lot of draftniks do,
and that’s of course because he does a lot of “getting blocked” and while edge
guys do that a lot and that makes them super hard to project, I don’t love pass
rushers that are always busy getting blocked. I probably would just wait and
take Karlaftis if I were the Texans but I have to stick to this Seahawks bit
even if it throws everything else out of whack.
10. New York Jets – DEREK STINGLEY JR., CB, LSU
I just have to give the Steel Birds their Revis. I know they
have no WRs and they have a 2nd year QB and you’d love to, like, get him some receivers, but this draft is insaaaaanely
deep at receiver. We haven’t seen this much young talent since the Vikings
decided to take that boat trip. While Stingley probably isn’t Revis, he’s that
kind of corner. The true shutdown guy. Stingley Jr. Island. As long as it’s not
Greenland.
Stingley is a tough
evaluation but that’s not what confuses me about his projections. People
thought he was the number one overall pick after his freshman year. What
changed? Yeah he got hurt but is it just because he didn’t get any interceptions
in 2020 and 2021? Are all these talking heads really just looking at box score
stats? He’s the same guy. Let’s talk corners.
If I asked you, who
is the best WR in the NFL, who are you going to say? Some people would take
Hopkins, others Adams and maybe Tyreek Hill, and you have the young guys in
Jefferson and Chase. Before those two however it was probably the same guys in
2019 and 2020. Before that people said Julio or AB for like 8 years. And before
that everybody said Megatron.
Now, who is the best
corner in the NFL? Is it Trevon Diggs? The year before that it was Xavien Howard.
Before that it was Stephon Gilmore, then Jalen Ramsey, then Xavier Rhodes, then
it was like Marcus Peters/Aqib Talib szn, and that’s right after Richard
Sherman who took the spot from Darrelle Revis and so on and so on. Top corners
are only perceived as “top corners” for like a year or two, and my best guesses
for that are a) interceptions can be kinda fluky year to year and b) they don’t
control anything. It's probably the single furthest-removed position from the
ball. WRs depend on QBs and scheme and stuff but CBs in turn depend on the WR
and so they are like, second level dependent. I’m not saying this well but
maybe 2 or 3 people can understand what I’m verbally slogging through. The
perception of a corner’s performance is so heavily based on the outcome of
like, 6 plays each season.
So you’ll end up
with random statement years, but the talent is always there. Sherman had a
random late career renaissance. So did Talib, and for that matter Revis and
Gilmore when they got to New England. So if you liked Stingley in 2019 when he
had a bunch of INTs, you should still like him now. He’s the same guy. Tall and
fluid, matches WRs stride for stride, great lateral agility and change-of-direction
ability, and a guy who has shown that he can go up and take the ball away if
you’re not careful. He didn’t forget how to make interceptions since 2019.
I’d argue that he
just wasn’t as dominant in the last two seasons because of things that were
also true in 2019. He is very dicey in zone; you pretty much have to just isolate
him on the X-Receiver and tell him to take him out of the game. His feet aren’t
like elite corner great and so he’s chasing guys and that doesn’t always work.
It did work in 2019 when 5 of his interceptions were poorly thrown deep balls
and “chasing receivers” put him right in position to take them away. And to his
credit, he did. Not every corner has those ball skills. But the underlying
skills to become that Revis/Jalen Ramsey lockdown type are there and I think
that’s too much for the planes to pass up.
11. Washington
motherfucking Commanders jeez – JAMESON WILLIAMS, WR, ALABAMA
I considered trading
down here with the Commanderz but after coming up with the trade, I had second thoughts.
The Commanders’ roster is actually pretty solid. But…it’s bland. They just don’t
have many guys that move the needle. The playmaker types. And there really aren’t
too many of those guys in this draft. But there is one, and that’s Jameson
Williams.
Williams is a true
burner. Like this dude is fast as all hell. I know he’s coming off an ACL
injury, but tearing your ACL in 2022 is like spraining your thumb in 1982.
Plus, it’s probably not a bad idea to pre-tear your knee ligaments before
playing on FedEx Field.
12. New man on the
Minnesota Vikings – JORDAN DAVIS, DT, GEORGIA
Remember when the
Vikings had a good defense? Pepperidge Farm remembers.
As they often say,
the best defense is a good offense. However, I disagree. It is my contention
that the best defense is a good defense. So let’s draft some defense. And what
do you know, there’s a generational athlete available at a spot of need for the
Vikes. Jordan Davis is just, he is not created in the typical mold of a human
being. This is a 340 pound DT who ran a 4.78 forty. That’s nutrageous. He’s like,
as fast as TJ Hockenson. He’s the second best size adjusted athlete in the entire
RAS database behind Calvin Johnson. And it’s not just timed speed, this guy
makes some Aaron Donald plays chasing down outside runs. You have to double-team
this guy if you want to run on him.
Now for a player
like this to go 12th in a bad draft, something has to be up, right?
Well, yeah, there are concerns. One, he was not on the field a lot and this has
given rise to concerns that he may be a two-down player in the NFL. Well – I think
a lot of that was due to Georgia just being stacked out of his mind, and even
if so, if he’s amazing on those two downs and you’re putting teams in third and
10, is that worse than a guy who is on the field on all three downs but the
last one is 3rd and 2? I don’t think so.
Two is that you have
a guy here who weighs 500 lbs but plays like he’s John Randle. He’s not John
Randle. Yes it’s impressive when he swims right by a blocker and crushes a running
back but you’d probably like to see more strength and physical dominance from somebody
like Davis. But still, a guy this rare in a draft this weak just cannot go deep
into the first round and I wouldn’t be surprised he went much earlier.
13. Seattle Seahawks
– IKEM EKWONU, OT, NC STATE
I wanted to make the
Fake Birds take Malik Willis but I just don’t think they will and plus if they
were going to do that, they probably wouldn’t trade down from #9. I have to let
them keep their Seahawk-iness, even though Willis does play a lot like Russell
Wilson. Also it’s not like me making it so the Steelers can’t take Willis in my
mock is going to manifest that in real life.
This choice came
down to Ekwonu or George Karlaftis and initially I had Karlaftis here, as he
reminds me of the big DEs that Seattle had back a decade ago in the glory days.
But then I thought, there’s a few of those guys left. There are no tackles left
after Ekwonu.
In reality Ekwonu is
supposedly in the discussion for the first overall pick and a top 5 lock. I personally
do not see it and I disagree with everyone on this guy – I don’t think he sucks
but he’s not what I think when I think “top ten OT”. He looks small compared to
the rest of the NC State OL and he’s primarily a run-blocker, which in 2022 is
like being proficient on a typewriter. But if there’s one guy who’s still typin’,
who just loves slappin’ that carriage return, well it’s Head Ballcoach Peter
Gabriel Carroll. You can put Pete at the helm of the 1989 49ers and you’ll end
up with a 300-carry season from Tom Rathman. And of course, the Seahawks have
had a weakness on the offensive line for the past, ohhhh about 15 years or so.
Did Walter Jones place a curse on this team or something? Anyway if Ekwonu
somehow gets this far I have to think he’d be the pick.
14. Baltimore Ravens
– AHMAD GARDNER, CB, CINCINNATI
Here’s another top 10
lock that I have dropping in Ahmad “Sauce” Gardner, a player who got his name due
to a weird sexual fetish involving marinara sauce. Actually I’m not sure how he
got his name but it is a cool name and I’m all about adding cool names.
Sauce the Hoss is this
year’s model of the tall, rangy corner and he seems to me like he’d make a good
replacement for Jimmy Smith and whatever other Ravens corners tear their ACLs
during the first week of walkthroughs. Soss plays a bit like William Jackson
III did, tall and fast and aggressive but not all that refined in the art of
pure cornerbacking and really dependent on great recovery abilities. It worked
for Jackson for a few years but it’s not a typical model of NFL success. However
if you put him in more of a zone-heavy scheme he could be a souped-up Richard
Sherman and honestly I wouldn’t be completely shocked if he makes it to wherever
Seattle designs to grace us with their selection and ends up being their
selection.
For all of his
faults at “knowing how to play press man coverage”, there is a lot to like
here. This is a guy who is always around the ball and that’s an inherent skill
that is hard to teach. He’s always running around and making plays and it
reminded me a little bit of Ed Reed and perhaps the Goth Birds will see the
same thing. Tailor his role to something like that and you might have an All-Pro.
Hell, put him at free safety. Just let him be Ed Reed man!
15. Philadelphia
Eagles – ANDREW BOOTH JR., CB, CLEMSON
I considered using the
Eagles as my Seahawk trade partner to move up and take Sauce Gardner, but as a
consolation prize in this fake exercise that means absolutely nothing they get
my personal favorite corner in this draft in Andrew Wilkes Booth.
Booth may not be the
pure lockdown corner that Stingley is or quite the ball magnet that Gardner is,
but he does everything well and I think there’s value in that. Going back to my
previous tangent on cornerin’, everyone loves to say “oh Bill Belichick puts
his guys in great position to play to their strengths” but really, how much of
the corner’s responsibility can you truly control? And maybe that’s why they
rise and fall so quickly? If you have a guy like Stingley who plays best isolated
on the X-receiver, then I’m going to run him to death covering crossers and force
the defense to adjust. If you’ve got Gardner and he’s always off the ball
because he can’t press then I’m going to throw screens over there and hope that
I can draw him up. My thoughts are that Belichick drafts defensive players who
are scheme-versatile, as he loves to come with brand new schemes on both sides of
the ball every week depending on opponent. And thus, by using a playstyle that
matches up well with the other team, he’s putting every player in a good
position every week. People seem to think it’s as simple as saying “oh we’ve
got a speed-rusher at DE, Bill’s gonna have him speed rush all game” as if the
other team isn’t going to notice that. You can’t disguise anything if the other
team knows that some of your guys can only do one thing.
There is a danger in
overvaluing a jack of all trades type, as it really doesn’t matter how many
things he’s good at if he’s not good enough for the NFL at them. But I don’t
think Booth is that guy. He’s even more aggressive a tackler than Gardner, he appears
to be a very high awareness corner who recognizes plays pre-snap, and he does
make some wild highlight plays to pick or at least break up passes. I do think
he was miscast a bit in a zone-heavy scheme at Clemson and in reality is a
better man corner, and I wasn’t impressed with his closing speed which when
combined with no, uhhh, Combine, is concerning. Man, it’s like every player is “concerning”
this year. Great year to have multiple first rounders!
16. New Orleans Saints – KENYON GREEN, OT/OG, TEXAS A&M
New Orleans needs a wide receiver or a tackle pretty badly, and there’s nobody
available who I think they would take outside of those two positions. Now, one
of those positions is insanely deep, and that’s wide receiver. The other falls
off an absolute cliff very soon, and that’s offensive tackle. The Saints have been
kinda under the radar with how great their recent drafts have been, so I think
they do the smart thing here and address the position with a scarcity issue.
I like Kenyon Green
more than most people seem to, and while he’s often listed as a guard I think
he can play tackle and would be comfortable drafting him for that with moving
over to guard as a fallback. He’s got that Greg Lloyd disposition, he’s a big
mf-er and he has like an edge rusher caliber burst at the snap. He’s got some
Kevin Spacey in him in that he just explodes into college dudes. And he plays
like he checks the athletic boxes generally required by elite OTs.
Butttttttt he doesn’t.
His timed athleticism is middle of the road at best by NFL standards, so you
have to hope that he either tested poorly or that he’s a bit of an outlier. The
good 10-yard split time is encouraging, as acceleration is clearly more
important for an offensive lineman than sprinting 40 yards. And let’s be honest,
this is about the point where all drafts start to become complete shots in the
dark. And you, dear reader, are to blame. Wait that’s shots to the heart.
Nevermind. Still your fault though.
17. Los Angeles
Chargers – TREVOR PENNING, OT, NORTHERN IOWA
The Chargers, a team
with an absolutely stacked roster that still finds a way to perennially go like
6-10 (yeah I know it’s 11 now), need an offensive tackle and there is one top
guy left. And I don’t just mean “oh here’s the top 5 guys and here’s the next 5
guys and here’s so and so” – I mean there’s an absolute chasm coming and I don’t
even like Penning. I do like Abraham Lucas more than Penning but Abraham Lucas
is not a first rounder and at least Penning has some first round qualities.
Like, he’s an incredible athlete, just below the best OT of all time who was
somehow another Northern Iowa player last year in Spencer Brown. What the hell
is going on in Directional Iowa?
Now Penning…this
motherfucker is just incredibly unique. I have never seen an offensive lineman
play like a WWE wrestler until this. Diamond Dallas Penning is just out there
trying to hip toss guys. When I say things like “oh I’d like to see Superstar
McLowtier dominate the D-2 scrubs he played against”, this is what I mean. He’s
throwing people out of the stadium, like Shawn Kemp going against a defense
made entirely of salads. And when he faced much better talent at the Senior
Bowl, he was rag-dolling a lot of them as well. So yeah that’s great, right?
Well, in my opinion,
no, not really. It’s absolutely comical how much this dude has to be the tough
guy. He’s chippy with everyone. He’s obsessed with throwing people onto the
ground. He will throw linebackers into his running back and make the tackle for
them. He’ll try to put someone in the Diamond Cutter only to have them spin out
and blow right by him into his QB’s face. In one of his Senior Bowl 1v1’s,
he threw the rusher into the back of (what would be) his QB’s legs. I’ve never
seen anything like this. He’s going to end up getting weekly personal fouls
called against him if he doesn’t dial this back a bit.
Now, let’s say he gets over that and reels it back in. You
still have a big problem – this dude has no technique. He’s raw as all hell. He
basically is that Robert Gallery “giant plucked out of the stands” hypothetical.
So you’ve got a guy pissing off everybody he goes against, and then once they get
pissed, he doesn’t have the technique to actually block these heated DEs. They got
pissed, started bull rushing him and just walked this dude all the way back to
Iowa. He has no base, he just kind of backs up into a pass blocking set and
that isn’t going to cut it when you piss off Von Miller or TJ Watt and they
just put you on skates. I don’t know enough about offensive line play to know
how reasonable it is to “coach him up”. One thing I DO know however is that NFL
coaches are often wildly overconfident in their abilities to do just that. If
Penning can be turned into an actual offensive lineman and not just a physical
specimen trying to defend his heavyweight title belt, he can be a star. I just
wouldn’t want to take that chance this early in the draft.
18. Philadelphia Eagles
– ARNOLD EBIKETIE, EDGE, PENN STATE
Time to start
getting weird.
I like a lot of edge
guys more than Ebiketie, but the Karlaftis types don’t really fit the Eagles’
scheme. More than perhaps any other team the Battery Birds know what they like at
this position and for better or worse that’s where they go with their picks. Ebiketie
seems like he’s that guy that they like. He’s quick and explosive, a true speed
rusher on the outside. You’re drafting the upside, because he needs a ton of
technique development, but that’s pretty much what teams do with edge rushers.
I’d say they “overdraft” athletes more here than at any other position.
You’ve also got the
issue of Ebiketie doing his best Kenny Pickett impression, in that he didn’t do
much of anything in 4 years at Temple before transferring to Penn State and
breaking out. And when you are a 5th year senior breakout that does
so with athleticism, that is extremely concerning.
19. New Orleans
Saints – GEORGE PICKENS, WR, GEORGIA
Another surprise
pick. I don’t want to go receiver but there’s really not anything else
reasonable here other than QB and if I were gonna have the Saints take Willis
or Corral they would I done so at 17. I’m not going back to re-write it now.
Pickens is not in a
lot of top 3s, but to me if you’re going to take a receiver in the first this
is what you are looking for. He looks eerily like AJ Green, and not just because
he went to Georgia. He is an incredibly smooth athlete with great body control
and he pairs that with top-flite athleticism and I’d actually be a bit surprised
if he doesn’t sneak into the first round. The concerns are the slight stature
and his recent injury history and lack of top production, but for me he’s shown
enough to deserve a high draft pick over the Ohio State guys who are almost
like, elite JAGs. Pickens just seems like a guy who is going to be able to get behind
NFL defenses and eat his fair share of W’s.
20. Pittsburgh Steelers
– MALIK WILLIS, QB, LIBERTY
It seems unavoidable
that the Steelers will take Malik Willis is he is there at 20. I just hope they
don’t trade up for him. Ideally I’d prefer this pick to be Devin Lloyd or maybe
Tyler Linderbaum but I can’t in good faith make the Steelers pass on Willis.
There is wayyyy too much smoke to this fire.
Now, while I have
the Lions and Falcons passing on QBs, that line of thinking doesn’t really apply
to teams like the Seahawks, Saints and Steelers. I strongly considered sending
Willis to the Seahawks and perhaps the Saints will use their odd bounty of
first rounders to move up for someone (though I don’t think they will), in any
case these are teams that are probably going to win 9+ games this season and
they aren’t going to be picking in the top 5 next year like Detroit and Atlanta
likely will be. So what are they waiting for? Excluding the year they moved up to
10th to grab a middle linebacker with all the awareness of a deer drunk
on fermented grapes, the Steelers haven’t drafted higher than 14th
in like 15 years. How exactly are they going to move up high enough to get a
Bryce Young type? They have to strongly consider guys with questions who drop
later into the first round. I remember there was a debate as to whether they
should take Lamar Jackson when he started dropping. Spoiler: yeah, they should
have.
So here’s a guy in
Malik Willis who gets compared to Lamar Jackson a lot. He shouldn’t, though.
Willis appears to be a good but not great athlete; dudes like Lamar and Vick
are on a different planet athletically. Willis is not nearly as fast as Lamar
Jackson. He’s quick and shifty but he’s not often out there breaking off 20+
yard runs. The problem here is that Willis seems to think he’s Lamar Jackson
and he starts playing like it. Way too often you’ll see him running out of a
clean pocket on 3rd and 11 for like 7 yards or trying to just spin
away from 3 defensive linemen and just not getting away.
Instead, I see a bad
version of Russell Wilson. He runs like Wilson, he’s jittery like Wilson, and
he’s got an absolute cannon like Russell Wilson. This guy throws absolute darts.
He’s got Jalen Hurts-esque vision when he runs and like Hurts I believe it
makes people think he’s much more elite athletically than he really is. However
Willis is just consistently making bewildering decisions with the ball, just
downright Bettman-ian. Throwing up the seam into 3 defenders, he’s usually staring his WR down, he’s floating
some balls dangerously and not great at ball placement, and he apparently under
the impression that he will be kicked out of school if he takes a check down.
Now, at least regarding
the pocket presence and progressions stuff, he was much better in 2020, back when
I tuned into my annual college football game to just have my mind blown by a
ranked matchup between Liberty and Coastal Carolina. And yeah, playing at
Liberty in a scheme best described as “having Malik Willis” didn’t help. The
WRs don’t separate much at all, the line allows a lot of quick pressures, yada
yada. But he ain’t the only guy with that problem. Kenny Pickett has many the
same issues and he’s not out there wildin’. Well, at least not last year, he
kind was before 2021 but we’ve already gone over this.
Can he be a star?
Yeah, he’s got the arm for it, he’s got mobility, according to everything you
read he’s got all the intangibles that you like at the position. But to me
there’s just too many red flags in very important QB areas to have a ton of confidence
that he’s going to hit that ceiling.
New England trades
the 21st pick to the Colts for the 42nd and some other
shit
21. Indianapolis Colts
– YOROS “GEORGE” KARLAFTIS, EDGE, PURDUE
Alright, there’s a
glut of guys here that I would send to New England and I can’t decide which guy
to give them (I was leaning Devin Lloyd but there were too many good white guys
also available). In that situation they’d probably trade down, and while this
draft is weak at the top it’s quite deep in the 2nd and 3rd
tiers.
To do that however, they need a trade partner. Everyone’s always
saying “ (my team) should TRADE DOWN!”, completely ignoring that, you know, you
need a trade partner to trade. And if you want your team to trade down because
you don’t think there’s anyone available who’s really all that great, you’re
asking for another team to move up and take a guy who is not that great. And
that’s an issue here. I stretched to make this one happen and it’s probably
like a 0.0005% chance that it does.
My tortured reasoning here is that Indy is kind of in that
no man’s land where they aren’t going to be picking in the top 20 in the near
future yet they aren’t quite contenders in their current state either. This is
like rich man’s Jeff Fisher territory. They don’t have a first round pick and
there is only one guy left from the top of the edge pool. And to add uhhhh
complement to non-injury?, uhhh, yeah, anyone the guy left is FROM INDIANA! JIMINY
GOSH DARN CRICKET!!! The Colts gotta go up to get fuckin’ Yoros here!
In reality there’s nothing that suggests that Ballard and
the Baby Horses would do this but the draft is full of surprises and so boom
motherfathers here’s a surprise.
Yoros is not actually from Indiana, he’s from Greece, and he
moved to Indiana in 2014. Once there he was like whoa none of these children
are named Yoros I need to start being George and that’s just what he did. He
also set a state record in the shot put because he’s Athenian and that’s what
they do. So yeah he’s quite the athlete. He’s also my third ranked edge guy and
the 2nd ranked dude just tore his achilles during his Pro Day.
George the Greek is a bit of a tweener himself in that he’s
built like a 3-4 edge and as such he wasn’t just let loose at Purdue to go
after QBs. When he was, however, he looked hella explosive and also looks the
part of the shot put champ when he’s walking dudes back into the QB’s lap. He
was the kid that was just good at every sport, and one them when he was in
Athens was judo, so it’s no surprise that he has great hands.
The downsides are that while he is decently flexible for such
a big DE he’s still doesn’t appear to be super bendy which given his size is not
surprising and I also question why he’s out of position a lot. A guy with this
size and these athletic gifts should be able to hold the edge better but he’s
often going where the offense is baiting him to go. And it’s not like he just
came over from Greece last year so it’s not like this is something that’s just
going to naturally develop over the next few years. While he does have good
hands, he doesn’t really have any pass rush moves (which is by no means rare
for college kids) so he’s just reacting to blocks so he’ll need to respond well
to NFL coaching but given everything I’ve read about him he probably will.
I do however see a top 15 talent so trading up to 21 to get
him would be something I would understand, even though I won’t have to
understand it because this isn’t going to happen.
22. Green Bay Packers – JAHAN DOTSON, WR, PENN STATE
I now regret doing the whole trade thing at 21 because
Karlaftis would be the perfect fit for Green Bay. And they have a glaring need
for a 3-4 DE who can bump outside in nickel and dime sets. Oh well.
I’m trying to find a way to piss off Rahjahs and in reality
they can justify going somewhere other than WR here as this is the pick they
got from Vegas and they have another pick at 28, plus WR is so deep, but
looking at the board as I have it there’s really just nowhere else to
realistically go. So they can add the latest guy from the Penn State track club
in Jahan Dotson.
Dotson has legit jets and he knows how to use them, as he’s always
getting behind the defense and finding open space. Which makes sense, as you
need as much space as possible given the atrocious QB play we saw at Hackenburg
State. And you don’t have to throw it over the top to Dotson if you don’t want
to, you can also throw short and let him stack up RACs on RACs on RACs. I think
this is the kind of receiver that the Rodge would want to have rather than
another Marquez Valdes-Scantling type who just runs fast in a straight line.
Dotson’s risks are that he’s smaller and that while his 40
time was good his other metrics were not. But that matters less for receivers
than you might think.
23. Arizona Cardinals – TRENT MCDUFFIE, CB, WASHINGTON
This is the team I wanted to use to swap with New England
but it didn’t make sense to switch with a team that didn’t need a corner in
order to jump over a team that didn’t need a corner. Maybe they do it for
Karlaftis which would at least make sense however I don’t see that happening so
suck my ass if you’re a draft trades truther.
McDuff kind of looks like Tyrann Mathieu, so it makes since
that he goes to Arizona to play in the desert for the Warm Birds. He may be a
bit smaller but he’s aggressive as all hell and he’s ridiculously quick and
twitchy. My trepidation with this pick would be that I am assuming things that
he can do rather than confirming them because at least from what I watched,
Washington had him playing that Steeler Style where you line up 10 yards off
the ball and just like, let the other team catch it and tackle them. There’s a
chance that he’s secretly the best corner in this draft and we just never got
to see it at U Dub. There’s also a chance that he’s got footwork issues that
they were hiding but given his clear elite agility I doubt that’s the case.
24. Dallas Cowboys – JAQUAN BRISKER, SAFETY, PENN STATE
Seems like the Cowboys have been looking for a safety for about
a decade and so every year I mock on to them and then Jerrah stumbles out from
his bathroom rub and tug and takes a linebacker. Might as well stick with what’s
working.
Lo and behold, as usual, there’s a really good safety who
happens to be available for the Cowboys. Will they instead take a punt
returner? Probably. Oh well.
Brisker is my 2nd favorite safety this year and I
think that’s where he ends up getting drafted. He’s a Derwin James type who can
play deep zones or aggressively up at the line of scrimmage. Like Kyle
Hamilton, he does things that make you think he does his homework and has an
instinctive defensive awareness and that’s why I think he’s 2nd off
the board, as I don’t think the next two guys in line have that like Hamilton
and Brisker. He’s also a big hitter and will bring that Todd Hodne energy down
to Dallas.
The downsides? A bit light and he’s always trying to knock
people into next week rather than going after the ball, you know that thing
that you take to a certain area on the field to get points. So this is more of
a projection as I’ve seen enough to THINK that he can play in more of a
ballhawk/centerfield role but like McDuffie, he just wasn’t used that way as
much as I thought he should have been.
Also he’s not refined at all in man coverage so if a team wants
a safety but has designs of matching him up on tight ends a lot they’d probably
look at Lewis Cine or Daxton Hill.
25. Buffalo Bills – KENNETH WALKER III, RB, MICHIGAN STATE
Ok so everyone says “oh the Bills need a running back but nothing
Brandon Beane has done suggests they’d take one in the first”, and I think, how
do you know that? Are there other teams out there who are just taking first
round running backs every other couple of seasons?
Every year I go into a similar spiel about RBs – yeah I get
that you shouldn’t take them early in the first round. But in the 20s? Why not?
At the value positions you’re often getting like the 4th or 5th
best player by this point. The Bills need a corner. Well, right now they can
get Matt Elam’s cousin or a guy named Roger McCreary who I assume is an Irish
rugby player? They could go with the 7th best offensive lineman in a
weak offensive line year? It would actually make sense to take a receiver here
but I still think you can wait.
OR, the team about whom every year the TV analysts are all
like “but Terry they just can’t run the ball!” can take the best running back
available, a guy who looks a lot like Jonathan Taylor did last year running all
over their Bill asses? They can get a young RB with his best years ahead of him
on a cost-controlled contract with a 5th year option? A guy at a
position where rookies typically come in and are ready to play right away, on a
team with a glaring need that is just entering a multi-year championship window?
Yeah I don’t think that’s dumb. I’d get if they went somewhere else with this
pick but I don’t think it’s dumb for the Bills to take a running back.
Plus they could do us all a favor and get Devin Singletary
and Zach Moss out of our fantasy football lives.
26. Tennessee Titans – CHRIS OLAVE, WR, OHIO STATE
I just looked at the Titans depth chart and holy shit is
their receiver corps weak after AJ Brown and Robert Woods. I also just learned
that Robert Woods was on the Titans. Cool. He’s also 30 and coming off an ACL
tear so they’ve got that going for them.
This just happens to be a good WR year and they just happen
to be picking in a spot where there’s no glaring value available outside of WR
so here, here’s a WR. Olave is fast and has a good feel for the position and you
typically like fast guys who know what they are doing. He plays kind of like
OBJ but without the pinky catches and mumble-rapper hair. That should work. I for
some reason don’t love Olave (there’s this underlying feeling that he may be just
a guy and I don’t want to get JAGgy with it) but objectively there’s no good
reason for it and he should be a pretty good NFL receiver, particularly as a
clear #2.
27. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – ZION JOHNSON, OG, BOSTON COLLEGE
The Bucs could go anywhere with this. They have Russell Gage
as their third receiver and Cameron Brate is still the tight end so it may
behoove them to add some weapons for Blaine Gabbert and Kyle Trask or…wait,
what? For real? Are you serious? Damn. Ok. Well.
I read that their most pressing need is at guard, even
though I think it’s probably at DE but they run a 3-4 so who am I going after,
DeMarvin Leal? I don’t really like DeMarvin Leal so I’m going to assume Todd
the Bod Bowles doesn’t either.
But at guard, the last top tier guy is still available in
Zion Johnson. Arguably if Kenyon Green is a tackle and Tyler Linderbaum is considered
to be really a center only, then Zion Johnson is the only top-tier guard. So
good on you, Bucs.
Zion Johnson has the elite athleticism that matters more at
guard than at most positions believe it or not. He’s strong and he’s agile. If
you were at the guard store you’d probably want to shop first in the strong and
agile aisle and that’s where you’d find Zion Johnson. However he would not be
located in the dominant aisle, which seems to be a theme this year. A lot of
technicians who move well laterally. But I mean it worked for the Broncos 30
years ago so why wouldn’t it work now?
Speaking of Linderbaum I considered having the Bengals swap
with the Bills to jump Tampa and get Linderbaum but the more I think about it
the more I think that if this scenario were to play out, Cincinnati would just
stay put and hope Tampa doesn’t take Linderbaum themselves or I guess even if
they did the Bengals could just gobble up some Johnson.
28. Green Bay Packers – TREY MCBRIDE, TE, COLORADO STATE
This one is weird, yes, but Green Bay has been drafting
weird for quite some time now so why not? Nobody is considering Trey McBride as
a first round prospect but to me he sure looked like one and I pre-determined
that I was going to force him in here somewhere. So why not here?
You can’t replace Davante Adams with one rookie, so let’s try
to replace him with two. McBride has all the receiving ability you look for in
tight ends these days but unlike most of the other guys, he can actually play
like real tight end. So they have Bob Tonyan – I don’t think that means that
you’re set at tight end. Marcedes Lewis is like 50 years old and he’s still on
the damn roster. They could use a real tight end, and there’s only one real tight
end available this year….Trey McMotherfuckinBride.
29. Kansas City Chiefs – CHRISTIAN WATSON, WR, NORTH DAKOTA
Fitting that the team that signed Marquez Valdez-Scantling
drafts Marquez Valdez-Watson.
Christian Watson is an absolute specimen. He’s one of the most
athletic WRs to even enter the draft according to RAS. He’s big and fast and
explosive and everything, sure. He’s Chase Claypool, basically. DK Metcalf. Orrrr
Breshad Perriman? James Jett? Darrius Heyward-Bey? Fastward McStraightline?
I guess I just expected more from a guy running 4.3s in a
dome past Upper-Midwest scrubs. He did appear to have pretty good feet for a
big WR in his senior bowl 1v1s, but D-1 corners stuck to him better than I
thought they would. This is an athletic projection, you’re drafting a really
fast guy that may have the building blocks to make an actual WR from because
you lost Tyreek Hill. Sure, pregnant women in Kansas City are going to be much
safer now, but so are opposing corners.
That all being said while I am skeptical about Watson living
up to a first round draft spot he’s probably going to get picked there and with
his measurables he could certainly become a star player. I just don’t love this
archetype and for every Chris Claypool (for whom the jury is still out, btw)
there are nine Miles Boykins.
30. Kansas City Chiefs – DAVID OJABO, EDGE, MICHIGAN
I have Ojabo as my #2 edge rusher but that of course was
before he tore his achilles (I’ve been working on this for like 2 months man,
jeez I gotta spend my time better). The Chiefs are beginning to have salary cap
strains and they are going to need to replace Frank Clark soon. In reality
Frank Clark stopped being good a year or two ago so they can start replacing
him now. I don’t know when Ojabo will be coming back but even if it’s not until
next year it’s not all that likely that whoever they take in this spot will be
making a significant contribution this year anyway, so they can afford to take
a guy with top 15 talent and stash him for a year.
Assuming Ojabo recovers fully, he’s easily the best speed rusher
in this group. He reminds me of Kwity Paye, and not just because they were both
victors and the best. He can bend the edge well enough to get to the QB and he
finishes plays. He’s got the measurables to back that up as well, even though
he strangely has the build of like a train engineer or something. All of the
other guys have elite athletic traits but they don’t necessarily look like it for
whatever reason. That isn’t the case with Ojabs.
Plus he’s been playing football for three years (for real)
so there’s probably some significant development still untapped.
31. Cincinnati Bengals – TYLER LINDENBAUM, C, IOWA
The Bengals gotta get some more guys who don’t suck onto their
O-Line, particularly since last year they took a guy who sucks massive ass in
Jackson Carman.
For whatever reason, teams don’t value centers and never
really have. I however do, and so every year I mock a top center into the first
round and he ends up going like 30 picks later. Last year it was Creed Humphrey,
the best center prospect I’ve ever seen and another guy I think got groupthinked
into a bad draft spot. This year however the class is weaker than the
groupthink is strong and if the Bengals want to get their next Billy Price they
may have to move up to do it.
I do not think Linderbaum is Billy Price though, don’t get
it twisted. He’s really good. He’s a little small but he’s quick and feisty and
stronger than you’d expect a smaller lineman to be. He can also snap the hell
out of the ball, man can this guy snap. The QB says “hut” and hoo boy Linderbaum
just snaps it back. I’m bored if you can’t tell.
32. Detroit Lions – DEVIN LLOYD, ILB, UTAH
Devin Lloyd is my favorite player in this draft. Every year
I’m like, “here is a middle linebacker who runs a 4.4 and benches 800 pounds
but he has no idea what he’s doing and he’s going to get drafted 50 spots too
high”. Devin Lloyd is not that. He’s the best ILB prospect I’ve seen since Luke
Keuchly. Everything you want a linebacker to do, he does. I did like Zaven
Collins a lot last year but thought it was weird that he was like 260 lbs yet
was such a light hitter for the position. Not Lloyd, he brings the processed
trees. He’s almost always going to the right hole and rarely gets caught out of
position. He doesn’t wait to make the tackle 6 yards downfield like Kenneth
Murray and Jamin Davis. He’s an elite athlete and he’s perfectly comfortable in
coverage. He can shed blocks and find his way though the trash.
If you watch Utah’s game against Stanford last year you would
be watching an absolute clinic put on by Professor Lloyd. He did everything I
mentioned above on like, every play. He also throws a couple of blockers to the
moon for good measure, where they quickly died in the inhospitable conditions.
This guy committed MURDERS. So how are the Ravens and some other teams passing
on him during such a weak year? Did he not obstruct enough justice?
For whatever reason, my board just doesn’t line up for him. “Value”
positions are getting pushed back to teams that don’t usually get a shot at
them, ie the Steelers taking Malik Willis when in reality I want them to take
Lloyd. Or the Patriots trading down because Bill Belichick can’t get off unless
he turns a pick in the 20s into two 2nd rounders, even though I
would have to think they love Lloyd and in reality would probably stay put and finally
get a linebacker who runs better than Rich Eisen. But if they don’t, another
team who needs (insert pretty much any defensive position) is Detroit and they
are the beneficiaries of this hot warm trickle down.
Alright, so that’s that. Now some guys I watched but didn’t
put in my draft.
QBs:
Matt Corral – I think he might actually be good but this is
the stupidest offense ever and he just runs into people like he’s Jerome Bettis
or something. I do not know what Ole Miss was doing.
Sam Howell – It’s eerie how similar he looks to Baker Mayfield
physically and that is so not in right now. There are some really good
stretches but too many bad stretches to think he’s going to go in the first
round.
Carson Strong – I want this guy to work but unfortunately it’s
not 1993 anymore. He can’t move and he looks like a guy who couldn’t move
before he developed a knee issue that not really keeps him from moving. He is
probably the best pure QB in this draft, which makes sense because he can’t
move and had to develop all the other skills like throwing into tight windows
and not running around aimlessly like a 5 year old.
Bailey Zappe – Threw for 100,000 yards in 2021. He’s
probably the latest version of Timmy Chang, though.
Desmond Ridder – Cincinnati was really good last year. Yeah
I know they played for the championship so yeah obviously but they have like 10+
NFL players on this roster. Desmond Ridder actively hurt this team. He’s so
bad. Why do people think he’s not bad, let alone actually good? If he goes in
the first I think he’s the worst first round QB since Christian Ponder.
OTs:
Abraham Lucas – I like Abraham Lucas and he’s got the athleticism
you look for in a first rounder but there’s just too many moments where he gets
absolutely dominated.
Bernhard Raiman – This guy sucks every play. Why is he being
talked about like a 2nd rounder. He’s my 2022 Jackson Carman.
Daniel Faalele – He’s like 6’8” 400 pounds but on the bright
side he moves like he weighs 500 pounds.
TEs:
Greg Dulcich – Dulcich is a really athletic receiving tight
end and I would have considered putting him as my number one tight end IF he
ever actually did like tight end stuff. Still could be a Travis Kelce-esque draft
steal a few years down the road.
Jelani Woods – The single greatest TE athletically to ever
enter the NFL draft (in the RAS era). But you probably wouldn’t have guessed
just by watching him. He’s not bad but he’s not like some jump off the screen
athlete. Still may go a lot higher than people think just based off the
measurables.
Armani Rogers – This guy has played tight end for like 2 weeks
but he’s like, kinda good at it in that limited sample size. If some team
drafted him in the 3rd round I’d get it and wouldn’t have much of an
issue with that.
WRs:
Treylon Burks – Combine killed him. He plays like he’s Josh Gordon
but the testing proved that he’s not. Still could sneak into the first and if
you are one of those “I don’t care how he runs in shorts, PUT ON THE TAPE!”
types you probably like Burks.
Garrett Wilson – A lot of people have him as the top WR in
this draft and I see some OBJ resemblance with how he plays but at the end of
the day I think he’s just a (moderately above average) guy.
Calvin Austin III – I like this guy a lot but he’s probably
too much of a likely gimmick player to go in the top 32.
John Metchie III – He’s ok, I think? Too many WRs in these
drafts. Also too many guys with sticks after their names.
David Bell – He’s like the new Treylon Burks if you made the
actual Traylon Burks the best athlete in the NFL. Yeah he was a stud at Purdue
but there are so very few of these types that pan out in the NFL.
Skyy Moore – People love Skyy Moore. I’m not one of them, he
doesn’t look all that great to me.
Alec Pierce – Sabotaged by Desmond Ridder. I didn’t watch
enough of Pierce to rank him but he’s a tall burner who can shimmy enough that
you could probably teach him to run pretty good routes. He’s really just a step
behind Christian Watson and may be picked in the top 40. He also makes a lot of
ridiculous highlight grabs.
RBs:
Breece Hall – Fantasy darling and he’s a tremendous athlete
in a big body but he just goes down so easily.
Isaiah Spiller – The best at running 10 yards, and the worst
at running 11 yards. He could be a Pro Bowl caliber NFL runner for sure but I
don’t see him pushing for a first round draft spot.
ILBS:
So many ILBs.
Christian Harris – I really like Christian Harris and wouldn’t be surprised if
he sneaks into the first. He’s got the Alabama thing working against him and I
don’t love that he seems to be guessing out there but he’s still flying around everywhere
doin’ things. Legit sub-4.5 40 guy too.
Nakobe Dean – Butkus Award winner from 2022. I think he’s
good but I like him less than most people, I think.
Leo Chenal – This motherfucker is rare af. He’s this year’s
Shazier in that his highlight tapes are just ridiculous. However he’s really
only dominating when Wisconsin puts him right up on the center and sends him to
destroy. I don’t know if he can play like, actual inside linebacker. However he’s
the 2nd most athletic ILB of the RAS era and he screams it when you
watch him play. Number 1 most athletic is also in this draft.
Quay Walker – I like him but I don’t think he’s all that
special and not worth a top 50 pick.
Troy Andersen – This is the guy who beat out Leo Chenal for
top athlete in the history of inside linebackering. His college career was like
a Myles Jack fever dream, started at Montana State as a running back, then he
was the fuckin’ quarterback one year (!), then he’s the middle linebacker? He
was the Montana state 100 and 200 meter champ in high school and it’s hilarious
watching this giant alien just dusting all these little kids. Reminds me of
Ryan Mundy in high school. It was a sight to behold.
Anyway Andersen is raw as all fuck but that’s to be expected. He’s been getting
some fringy first rounder talk and while I’d bet against it and I don’t think
he’s anywhere near good enough right now for that I’d get it with the measurables.
Chad Muma – A great athlete who doesn’t really play like it
and so people say “oh he’s a gritty tackler” but he’s always making tackles after
5 yard gains. I am not a huge fan.
Brian Asamoah II – This is the year of name sticks. I do
like his game but he’s super undersized and it’s obvious that he’s super
undersized the way he can be pushed around. To be that small you’ve got to
really stand out and I don’t think he does enough.
Brandon Smith – There’s a lot to like here but it’s going to
take some serious development to get there. However for a Day 3 lottery ticket
I think this is a really good bet.
Darrian Beavers – The Desmond Ridder of Cincinnati’s
defense.
CBs:
Roger McCreary – A detective from Belfast. Actually a corner
from Auburn. I love his game and think he’s the best corner in this draft from
a skills perspective but he’s just nowhere near the athlete that top corners
usually are.
Kaiir Elam – A big fast guy but I think he plays like a big
fast guy and those guys don’t often turn very well. I’m not a huge fan but I
don’t hate him.
Kyler Gordon – Trent McDuffie’s running mate (McDuffie/Gordon
2036!), I like him less than others do though. He looks kinda like a not all
that good Trent McDuffie.
Zyon McCollum – The single most athletic CB in RAS history,
which is saying something. However I watched the few snippets of Sam Houston
games that were available on YouTube and they were not saying something. He didn’t
look great in Senior Bowl 1v1s either.
Tariq Woolen – Like McCollum but add super raw to the mix.
He’s an athlete that does not know how to play cornerback and yet he’s getting
some rd 1 talk because he ran fast and jumped high come on people WHAT ARE YOU
DOING
Safeties:
Daxton Hill – A lot of people have him as their #2 safety
and he may go in the first. I like him less than those people but still like
him. He’s a Budda Baker type and yeah I liked Budda Baker a lot but I thought
Budda Baker was better than Hill and those types have to really impress as they
are not creating a lot of turnovers.
Lewis Cine – A very weird player who plays like Sean Taylor
but often times he runs up with homicide on the brain and just collides with
some poor ball carrier and…nothing really happens? I don’t know why because he’s
big, super fast and homicidal but ehhhh who knows. He does have some serious
jets though and if you can get him to do some more safety-ing and less
murdering you may have something here. He’s a sub 4.4 guy with serious range.
IDL:
Perrion Winfrey – I like Perrion Winfrey more than most, but
he is more of a high impact player than a consistent disruptor. But when he makes
an impact he makes the shit out of it. It is concerning that he was off of the
field so much for Oklahoma though, this guy weighs under 300 pounds yet he
makes Jordan Davis look like Roger Bannister.
Devonte Wyatt – I don’t see enough to take him in the first
round. Tough to rank the Georgia guys though as that defense was just outrageously
stacked.
DeMarvin Leal – To me he’s just too much of a tweener and
not really high NFL-caliber inside or outside on the DL but the skill is there.
Edges:
Someone should upload a video of 2022 edge rush prospects highlights and call it "30 Minutes of Hot Edging".
Cameron Thomas - I am much higher on this dude than most people seem to be. I think he's a round 1 talent in a year like this one. Sometimes his aggressiveness gets him a bit out of control but if he can reel that in a bit I think you have a valuable player, particularly if you need a 3-4 DE type.
Boye Mafe - A complete Combine creation, I am rarely impressed by Mafe but he's incredibly athletic at a spot where that gets you drafted really high.
Kickers and Punters:
Hahaha lol jk
