FINALLY DONE.
It's that time of year, and that means
it's mock draft time. This year I present to you the most half-assed effort of
the past few years, as I didn't put much effort into something I didn't think
was going to happen. It's still way too overloaded with GIFs that will probably
render it unloadable and most of those gifs did not appreciate the compression
attempts at all.
There were a lot of missed Pro Days
this year, so I think that favors names over athletes in many cases. It will
probably also lessen the risk-taking that some of these GMs make. Assuming they
can all figure out the technology and this actually happens. I'm still
skeptical.
Oh well, let's get it.
1. Cincinnati
Bengals select JOE BURROW, QB, LSU
No need to get cute. The Bengals take
Cajun Colt Brennan after thinking about it for 4 seconds. I don’t buy the
Justin Herbert smokescreen….if the Bengals take Justin fuckin’ Herbert over
Burrow then I don’t know what the shit they are doing and they should be
contracted.
I wasn’t fully on the Burrow train at
first because he plays in one of those “everyone is open” offenses and it
seemed like every time I watched he was throwing a dicey sideline pass that
should have been picked, but apparently that was all just weird coincidence
because he’s ridiculously good. I’ve never seen a QB prospect this accurate –
every single pass is placed immaculately, even if he’s running diagonally
backwards and turning to throw a dig route 15 yards down field across his body.
It’s uncanny. Urban Meyer sat this guy behind JT BARRETT for two seasons. Urban
Meyer is so dedicated to his late 1990’s offense that he’d probably sit him
behind JT Money if he had the chance.
-How?
Anyway, you have to pick nits with
Burrow. “Oh, his arm strength isn’t great”. Yeah well maybe he isn’t Lincoln
Hawk but his arm is plenty strong enough. Yeah, some of those sideline throws
that should have been picked might suggest his arm isn’t like bionic or
anything, but every QB has balls that should be picked and Burrow throws them
significantly less frequently than everybody else except maybe Jake Fromm, but
Jake Fromm has the arm talent of Jake from State Farm.
Ehh, I mean you have to look hard and
long to find other instances of this.
How much arm strength do you need?
This is a dart, rolling out, right on the money. Burrow is basically
impersonating Sam Darnold at an elite level. He also loves to take deep shots,
and they are usually also right on the fuckin’ money. Yeah he throws a lot of
short passes but so does everyone these days and he probably throws less of
them than everyone else. Every other pass Tua throws is a screen. Burrow
doesn’t need many screens.
I will pick nits though because that’s
what you gotta do I guess….it was too easy for him and that is something to
consider for about 3 of those 4 seconds. There’s usually at least one guy who
is wide the fuck open:
And if not, his entire receiving core
is gonna be drafted in the first couple rounds of the draft and he can just
throw the ball up to whichever one of them is single-covered on that play and
he’s probably going to catch it.
I had the same concerns with Marcus
Mariota and Baker Mayfield, for example. The offense was just so easy for them.
But even still, the QB still has to find the right guy and still has to put the
ball where he can catch it. I would have taken Mariota and Mayfield in spite of
that, and yeah it didn’t work out with Mariota and it may not work out with
Mayfield (who the hell knows what to expect from him now), but you don’t pass
up on Aaron Rodgers just because Jeff Tedford also coached Kyle Boller and you
don’t pass up on Burrow because Mariota is afraid to take a chance downfield.
Burrow can’t get hard without throwing downfield 10 times a game and I’m taking
my chances that he can figure it out when the windows get smaller in the NFL.
And really, the NFL windows are growing yearly. Why the hell do you think
everyone other than Mason Rudolph is a decent QB nowadays? Yeah I know I liked
Rudolph coming out, suck a D.
Like Rudolph though, Burrow would move
quickly away from pressure when it did get through his NFL line and I think
he’ll need to work on that in the NFL. But you don’t pass on a guy this
accurate because of that. You don’t pass on this guy because of the potential
upside if he translates to the NFL. And you sure as fuck don’t pass on him
because you like Justin Got Damned Herbert. If the Bengals do this then the
franchise should be forcefully wrested from Mike Brown’s stingy fingers and
given to Harambe’s family. Why does the NFL allow it’s version of Donald
Sterling to continue existing just because he hasn’t been taped being racist?
“Oh, but Burrow doesn’t want to play
for Cincinnati”. Maybe, but I don’t think he’d sit out. That offense can be
really good, right away. Draft John Ross in fantasy because Burrow is going to
hit him for like 5 TDs in the first two weeks before he goes on IR with a quad
pull. And if he does refuse to play, trade him then for 3 first rounders
because you know damn well some team will give them up.
2. Washington
Redskins select CHASE YOUNG, EDGE, El Universidad del Ohio Estado
It seems like every year I’m not
buying the hype about a top edge rusher, and this year it’s Chase Young. Now,
Chase Young is a phenomenal athlete. He’s extremely quick off the ball, always
first off the snap on the defensive line. He’s quick as shit around the edge.
But to me, that’s it for him at the moment. Sure, he’s relatively stout and
it’s not like OTs don’t have to work to stop him, but he’s not generally going
to go through them to get to the QB from what I’ve seen. He’ll pile up coverage
sacks and sacks against lesser OTs, kinda like Josh Allen last year. Now, Josh
Allen is a beast and yeah, I didn’t like Josh Allen. But I tried to talk myself
into Josh Allen during my write-up last year because he did show some nice rush
ability if you kept watching but I just couldn’t shake my initial read on him,
and that was a mistake. I don’t have the same hold-ups with Chase Young. I
think he’ll be decent-to-good. He’s too athletic not to make an impact; he’d
probably be an Allen-level elite elite athlete if he had Combine numbers. But I
don’t see anything like the absolute dynamo he’s being made out to be.
I originally had a trade in this spot,
but after doing so realized this draft isn’t all the great as far as high-end
talent outside of OT and WR (though at both and particularly at WR I think it’s
more great depth than top-notch prospects), and I doubt the Redskins are likely
to trade out of this spot without getting a huge return for it. I would have
given them that huge return if Tua weren’t injured, but…well, he was injured,
and he got injured a lot before that, and I don’t think anyone will move up to
2nd overall for him right now. I may not be all that big on Chase Young -
scouting pass rushers is hard, particularly when you’re doing it 5 minutes at a
time on Youtube, because more often than not they aren’t doing jack shit and as
with some of the other guys in previous years, I just didn’t see enough of
Chase Young doing jack shit at an elite level - but this is generally what top
Edge rushers look like, this is where you have to draft to get them, and that
alone is probably enough to cement this pick. Even if Young doesn’t live up to
the expectations, worst case he’s still probably going to be an 8+ sack guy off
athleticism alone.
3. Los
Angeles Chargers trade with Miami Dolphins (how about a pick swap, 3rd rounder
and 2nd rounder next year? Might be enough.
Los Angeles Chargers select TUA
TAGOVAILOA, QB, ALABAMA
I wanted to have the Dolphins trade up
to 2 to take Tua, but changed my mind after seeing Washington’s options after
the trade. If it gets to this point, and Miami is truly just going to “let the
board come to them” and all that dumb cliché shit then I do think LAC will try
to jump over them. The Chargers need a QB, and they need a reason for people to
give a shit about them. Nobody will care after they have Tua but they don’t
need to know that so just humor them. Hold on a second…
PUT YOURSELF ON MUTE GETTLEMAN!!
…ok. Back to this.
I understand the injuries but people
have been jerking off about Tua for like three years now and suddenly he’s
going to drop to 5 because the Lions really want Jeff Okudah? I considered just
sending Tua to the Lions, because you need to take advantage of these
situations when they present themselves, and if not for the injuries I probably
would have. I mean, look at the Dolphins – they’ve been pissing into the ocean
breeze at QB for 20 years trying to find their next Dan Marino and they got
jack shit so far. And unfortunately for them they gonna keep pissin’.
Tua is like Burrow in that he put up
video game numbers in an easy offense, but he’s just significantly more
scattershot in my opinion.
Burrow never misses. Tua doesn’t
drastically miss but he’s still off way more than I thought he’d be. Yeah he
can run, but he ain’t Burrow. He’s more Kyler Murray to me.
Anyway, yeah yeah, same flags apply to
him – everyone is wide open, the entire offense is getting drafted in the first
round, if everyone is covered he can throw it up to his like 4th best receiving
option and he’ll still pluck it out of the sky off some dude’s nameplate:
But this is still a QB that can sling
it and run like a slot receiver, and that’s probably not dropping to 5th
overall unless his hip is truly fucked.
4. NY
Giants select JEDRICK WILLS, OT, ‘BAMA
It would be hilarious to mock a DT to
Gettleman’s boys but I can’t not give them an OT here. The Giants have needed
OL for years now, and they happen to be in position here to take a really good
one. Of course, if the Lions decide that they are Jeff Okudah away from finally
getting over the hump I wouldn’t be surprised if they tried to trade down into
the lower single digits to some team like Carolina that might want to go up and
get Tua. There are like 4 truly top notch OTs in this draft and they’d be
guaranteed to get one if they didn’t drop too far. The only shot to do that
right now IMO is a team loving Justin Herbert, which they shouldn’t, or loving
Okudah/Simmons/another OT so much that they’d want to trade substantial assets
to go up and get him, and I doubt that will be the case.
I didn’t really know who to send to
the Giants because I am not familiar enough with the kind of scheme they want
to run and I initially wanted to give them Wirfs, but after watching Jedrick
Wills I think he is the guy I would bet on if I had to put money on just one of
them to become a perennial NFL All-Pro. He’s one of those guys that almost look
like they are just going half-speed because they move so easily. He’s really
quick dropping into pass blocking sets, mirrors edge rushers really well, and
generally just stonewalls them when he gets his hands on them. Very rarely is
he flailing or out of control.
5. Miami
Dolphins select
No. I can’t do it.
Miami Dolphins select Justin…..GUHH no
man I can’t even write it down
Fuck it. Miami Dolphins select JUSTIN
HERBERT, QB, OREGON
Nobody:
Absolutely positively nobody:
U. of Oregon: WE MADE AN ELITE VERSION
OF BLAINE GABBERT!
Justin Herbert is a great athlete
(truly an elite athlete among QBs even by NFL standards). He’s got a great arm.
He’s tall. Awesome.
He also misses like every throw by at
least a little bit. That’s great that he’s mobile and he can run like flea
flickers and all of that Mike Mularkey stuff that no one gives a shit about
anymore, but when you aren’t doing that he’s going to be busy throwing
incompletions, snuffing out all YAC, and occasionally murdering your WRs.
Yeah I know he got hit as he threw but
his games are positively littered with that. I realize it was much more
difficult for him than it was for Tua and Burrow. Like, exponentially.
Supposedly their coaching was garbage and he had restrictions on what he could
do as well. But you should still throw the ball near where it’s supposed to go
if you’re going to be an NFL top 5 pick. Herbert does not. I would not draft
him in the first round.
Yeah, Josh Allen was scattershot, but
with Allen it was more a complete lack of pocket presence and a hilarious
inconsistency, throwing dimes 40 yards down field and then the next play
standing flat-footed and throwing a swing pass into the 8th row. With Herbert
it’s just missing throw after throw after throw. He looked good against
Colorado (I believe it was Colorado at least) in the games I watched. He looked
awful in the others.
I bet Miami’s glad they won all those
games in December.
6. Detroit
Lions select JEFF OKUDAH, CB, Ohio State
Every single mock draft on Earth has
it Burrow/Young/Okudah, and while I mixed in a trade I’m essentially going to
go with that as well. I don’t love Okudah – I might be the only person on Earth
that doesn’t – but this draft sucks as far as I can tell and I don’t see a
corner I can move ahead of him. I don’t want to give them a receiver or a
lineman (defensive or offensive) and I don’t think there’s a safety that could
go here nor is there an edge guy explosive enough for this spot (don’t search
that term on Pornhub).
Okudah is one of those ultra rare big
guys who can move, and that’s going to get him drafted even with a slow-ish
(for an elite CB at least) 40 time.
He’s also pretty good in run support,
shedding blocks pretty well for a corner:
But – I don’t know, outside of the
very basics there I don’t think he’s all that exciting as a prospect. Draft
Twitter has been blowing cubic meters of hot cum over this guy for months and
saying he’s Darrelle Revis but other than the foot quickness, I don’t see that.
He’ll stick with guys really well at the line of scrimmage but good WRs seem to
just find separation from him downfield, even if it’s just a small bit of it.
In the NFL, that’s all you need (unless your team drafted Justin Herbert). Even
guys like Tee Higgins who aren’t burners found some space. He’s also lauded for
ball skills that I don’t think I saw at any point of the videos I watched.
Again, I slacked this year, and you can’t learn much in ten minutes, but that’s
all I have to base these opinions on and this is what I saw from Juicy Jeff.
Like Chase Young, he should still be a good player and I guess that’s really
all you hope for realistically with most first rounders.
7. Carolina
Panthers select ISAIAH SIMMONS, ILB/S, CLEMSON
Isaiah Simmons is an absolute freak
athlete in the Shazier mold. He ran in the 4.3s, he can legitimately play ILB
and safety, and he’s legitimately in play to go anywhere as high as 3rd to the
Lions. Why is he lasting until 7? For all of the speed and power and coverage
ability, I don’t think he has the elite instincts to match. In a lot of plays
that I saw, he just seemed to react a bit slowly before committing and
sometimes looked a bit lost:
(lined up at the top in the
“safety”-ish spot)
When he does decide to go, he goes
hard and he tackles the shit out of people and really, #7 is really high for an
ILB. Prior to Devin White last year I think the last one to go this high
was….Luke Keuchly, 7th overall to the Panthers. Of course, like I say seemingly
every year, “this guy is not Luke Kuechly”. I almost think Simmons should be
used more like a safety than an ILB. Either way he’ll immediately be the
fastest LB in the entire NFL so he’s not going to last very long. Which makes
sense because he’s not an EDGE guy. Get it lol
8. Arizona
Cardinals select TRISTAN WIRFS, OT, IOWA
Arizona finally decides to keep their
QB for more than a year. Now it’s time to give Kyler Murray a pocket that he
can completely ignore.
Wirfs is an ath-a-lete. Yes, that’s a
common thread that you may notice with players selected at the top of drafts,
but most NFL All-Pros at just about every position except center, QB, nose
tackle and believe it or not safety are truly elite elite ELITE athletes. I’m
sure NFL teams notice this. They probably have their own metrics but for me,
all I can do is use numbers provided by relativeathleticscores.com, which
reduces all Combine/Pro Day numbers to a single metric from 0-10. 10 is Deion
Sanders, 0 is Dionne Warwick. Anyway, if you look at the 24 OTs in the NFL
since 1990 that have made a first-team All-Pro AND who also have numbers in the
database, 58% (14) had draft year RAS numbers over 9, four more had numbers
over 8, and of those guys 11 where over 9 when compared to all OTs in the
entire database (not just to their draft year). Wirfs if over 9.5. So when I
talk about the difference between a good or great athlete and an elite athlete,
this is what I’m talking about.
Of course, the top of those lists are
littered with elite athletes who sucked hot ass, so that’s just one part of the
puzzle. Not only did Wirfs show out at the combine, but he’s got the tape to
back up this selection as well. He’s quick as shit and not the most stout
against power rushes but he’s stout enough and really, in today’s NFL that’s
what I’m looking for. He’s a 1990’s Broncos kind of OL. And who cares if he
played right tackle? In the NFL today both tackles are arguably equally
important and the right side is where most of the beast pass rushers line up.
And Wirfs is the kind of guy who can stick with them. Jedrick Wells and Andrew
Thomas and Matthew Peart and a whole lot of top OTs this year played right
tackle.
So his name is kinda dumb and he
sounds like a Secret of Mana character. That’s fine, since no one’s ever going
to say it again after he goes to play for Arizona.
9. Jacksonville
Jaguars select DERRICK BROWN, DT, AUBURN
So I was watching Auburn play LSU and
Brown wasn’t doing anything for the first minute and I was thinking “well this
guy sucks JFC am I done yet let’s just move on why does this take so long”, but
then he sacked Joe Burrow with his right guard.
That guard isn’t some scrub, he’s
going to be drafted this week as well in the middle rounds and he’ll probably
start some NFL games. After that Brown just started rampaging through double
teams and being a general all-around menace. Is it a concern that he’s merely a
decent athlete by NFL standards? Yes but it’s not a dealbreaker…NFL DTs stars
are generally elite athletes as well (excluding some true nose tackles), but
there are a handful of guys who managed to make All-Pro teams without being 9+
RAS guys – Marcell Dareus, Chester McGlockton, Jerome Brown (though pre-modern
era Combine numbers should be taken with grains of New Orleans Saints-sized
salt) – that suggest Brown can potentially do this in the NFL. I look at two
guys with similar profiles in Vernon Butler and Akiem Hicks. Butler rampaged
through lines at Louisiana Tech but can’t do it in the NFL, while Akiem Hicks
was the guy that makes the Bears defense really go when it’s playing at 2018
levels. Which one will he be? Magnets….how do they work?
10. Cleveland
Browns select ANDREW THOMAS, OT, GEORGIA
This pick took about 4 seconds, only
decision was between giving the Browns Andrew Thomas or Mekhi Becton. I settled
on Thomas because he seems to be a more “traditional” top OT prospect and I
mean, the Browns have had success picking OTs named Thomas before. And really,
Cleveland has made about 4 good draft picks this millennium so I’m sure they
remember them quite clearly.
Thomas started off as the top OT
prospect and then kind of fell a bit but I don’t think there’s really any great
reason for it, and I almost slotted him to NYG at #4. He likes to murder just
like all of the other OTs in this class, he’s got pretty good mobility, he’s
not elite athletically but he’s still really really good there and that’s fine,
and his technique needs some work but it’s also still starting at a good level.
Sometimes he shuffles into pass sets a bit slowly and has to turn early but
other than that, he’s a guy you expect to plug into your lineup and forget
about for the next ten years, even though it never fuckin’ works like that
almost ever and there’s no reason that’s an accepted draft trope. I could watch
offensive linemen in space all day:
11. NY
Jets select MEKHI BECTON, OT, LOUISVILLE
The last of the top tackles goes to
the Jets to protect Sam Darnold from all of those spooky ghosts. Becton is a
mountain of a human who also put up like top 2% all time RAS numbers (which
take size into account). He’s got some of great highlights just pushing people
into last year, in fact this play (he’s the left tackle) is probably why
Gettleman had that lotion on his desk:
https://imgur.com/sO11MRR.gif
I expected to love this guy as a
prospect, but it seems to often that he is kind of lumbering or almost flailing
to hit rushers that I can’t put him above the other three. And I mean that’s
kind of to be expected, this motherfucker is a 6’7” and a legit 370 lbs. He
still could turn into Johnathan Ogden and in most other years he’d be the first
OT off the board. Hell, he still might be this year. You could make an argument
for just about any of these guys in any order, so I can’t wait until Skip
Bayless and Steven A. do just that.
12. Oakland
Raiders select CEEDEE LAMB, WR, OKLAHOMA
I thought about the Raiders trading up
to get a receiver, because theirs are atrocious and would struggle to get
separation in a divorce court, but the top 10 is littered with tackle-needy
teams and the WR class is also extremely deep this year. So the Raiders stand
pat and get to pick their guy at 12.
Who will their guy be? Who will be
open downfield only to be ignored by Derek Carr in 2020? Barring a surprise the
choice will be between Lamb, Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs and I am going to go
with Lamb. Jeudy just reminds me too much of Amari Cooper and Gruden shipped
him out of town so why bring him back? Lamb on the other hand has a lot of
Antonio Brown in him IMO, plus his feet are a perfectly acceptable 98.6
degrees. Lamb didn’t set the Combine on fire but he’s still a good athlete and
he’s just always open. He runs great routes, he’s a smooth strider that just pulls
away from DBs, and he has insane body control at the catch point. He also kind
of reminds me of Santonio Holmes, though he’s far more advanced as a receiver
than Holmes was at Ohio State. I think he’s the first WR off the board.
13. San
Francisco 49ers select JERRY JEUDY, WR, ALABAMA
This is a very year to need a wide
receiver and only pick in the teens. Jerry Jeudy used to be considered a
borderline lock top 5 pick but it’s a deep year for receivers, everyone needs a
tackle, and none of the Alabama guys had the season that would catapult them
into that range. And yeah they have a lot of talent but in general, top NFL WRs
dominated their team’s production in college, no matter who they played for and
who else they had around them. Odell Beckham did even though he had Jarvis
Landry across from him at LSU. Michael Thomas did. DeAndre Hopkins did even
with Sammy Watkins and Martavis Bryant also on his Clemson team. So it’s a
concern.
But Jeudy is too quick and explosive
to pass on him over said concern. He’s lightning quick and has silly jukes that
you’ve probably seen before (the one near the endzone is an all-time – I got
tired of GIFfing but it’s easy to find). His routes aren’t great but they are
still good because he’s so quick. He does get a bit dropsy at times as well.
Aside from the obscene jukes you look at him and you really think you’re
watching Amari Cooper.
He also wears a Star of David necklace
because his last name starts like “Jew”. I’m not joking. L’Chaim!
14. LET’S
GET WEIRD
Tampa trades 1.14 to NY Jets in
exchange for Jamal Adams
NY Jets select HENRY RUGGS III,
ALABAMA
Why not? If the Jets are intent on
trading away Adams, why not do it when you know who you’ll be getting out of
the draft pick. For the Bucs, I mean sure they could draft a safety. But they
are going all-in on Tom Brady this year (it’s SO weird to type that), so why
not trade the pick for a known quantity who can be that guy right now?
This makes too much sense, so expect
the NFL Zoom app to force close while they work out the details.
Hank Ruggs has top-end all-time speed
in addition to real actual WR skills. He’s like John Ross but without the
constant drops and injury troubles (so far). And yeah I know that doesn’t sound
like a ringing endorsement but during the 7 minutes that John the Broken is not
injured and/or dropping balls he’s usually wide open 50 yards downfield. Ruggs
can do that too.
My only major concern with Ruggs is
that for a guy this quick, he struggles a bit at times getting a clean release
off the line. I don’t think it’s significant enough to sink him though and you
don’t get guys that run 4.27 40’s every year.
15. Denver
Broncos select JAVON KINLAW, DT, SOUTH CAROLINA
This one was tough. The Broncos need
an entire receiving corps, but just miss out of the top tier guys and they may
as well wait until later on. Particularly with so many top NFL WRs coming
outside the first round (more than any other position, I believe). They need a
corner, but I do not like CJ Henderson and I don’t really know what to do with
Jeff Gladney. I don’t think they’ll go safety. They also need an OT but the top
tier is gone there and I’m not sure if the 2nd tier is going to start this
early. It might, of course – it’s kinda important to have a good OL and you
always have surprised like the time last year when Houston took a guy from West
Mississippi Culinary Academy in round 1 – but I don’t want to start that run
just yet. Looking at the board, there is one blue chipper left that stands out,
and that’s Javon Kinlaw. Denver can probably use a backfield wrecking DT. Who
couldn’t use that?
Kinlaw isn’t Derrick Brown. He’s not a
bull in a Chinese shop (or something like that), but he is a super twitched up
murder machine:
He’s not as consistent as Brown, he’s
quite tall for an interior DL and can get stood up because of it, loses his
balance at times, and it seems like he’s more TARGET KILL DESTROY at all times
than Brown and that gets him into trouble sometimes like this yoink move from
the Alabama center:
But when he does stay low, he comes in
like a wreccccckiiinnnnngggg ballllllllll. I think you take the good with the
not as good and there’s a ton of good here IMO.
16. Atlanta
Falcons select JEFF GLADNEY, CB, TCU
Gladney was my favorite corner in this
draft, and then they all went to the Combine and ran 4.5s so who even knows
anymore. But he’s tenacious, a smooth strider, all those buzzwords that the
people on TV use when describing guys who are going to disappoint in the NFL
relative to draft expectations at a minimum of about 50%. He did this to a guy
once:
Sidenote – TCU has a lot of prospects
this year which is complete bullshit because what THE FUCK are these uniforms?
Why have they not been burned in a Waco-sized fire? These should be ISIS’s flag
and here’s TCU proudly wearing them like they are declaring a jihad on my
retinas.
In real life if CJ Henderson is here
the Falcons would probably take him, but I am trying to not get caught up in
groupthink so I’m not going to follow along with that. The Falcons take Jeff
Gladney and never look back, which probably isn’t true because someone later in
the draft will probably be better so of course they’ll look back what are you
an idiot?
17. Dallas
Cowboys select XAVIER McKINNEY, SAFETY, ALABAMA
I love this guy. The Cowboys have
needed a safety for what feels like 30 years and finally one falls into Jerry
Jones’s lap, only this time he’s not going to get in trouble for it. McKinney
is a more of a “strong” safety type but not only is he physically imposing, he
appears to be a very heady player as well.
He is the anti-Delpit when it comes to
tackling:
He often seems to know exactly what
play is coming. He makes plays like this a few times a game:
And THEN he does stuff like this which
is just what the fuck come on:
There are top middle linebackers that
can’t do that. Shit, Kenneth Murray would be waiting 5 yards off the ball to
make those tackles that McKinney made in the backfield. He’s insane. The only
thing keeping him on the board this long is his slowish 40 time – he ran just
over 4.6. But, like I mentioned earlier, safety is the one defensive position
where pure athleticism doesn’t seem to be damn near a prerequisite. Roy
Williams, Ed Reed, Eric Weddle, Brian Dawkins, the aforementioned Earl the
Squirrel, Landon Collins – these guys all put up rather pedestrian Combine
numbers. McKinney’s 40 time was also really hurt by poor starting times, just
like Jalen Reagor’s, which means that either he’s slow to accelerate or he just
doesn’t start well out of a stance no safety will ever start from. I think his
actual straight line speed is decent and I think he’ll be a Pro Bowl safety in
the NFL. Like a real one, not 8th alternate Andy Dalton style because
Londraspidous Willowhedge dropped out last minute with athlete’s gout.
(Five gifs? You can tell which
positions I watched first)
18. Miami
Dolphins select ANTOINE WINFIELD JR, FS, MINNASOTAH
Dolphins could really use anybody good
so I’ll just go to someone I would want to draft. Winfield is one of my
favorite players in this draft, a smart safety with good speed and range who
turns bad decisions into turnovers. This play is pure insanity put into a
needle and shot directly into my ravaged veins:
The commentary on that play is
hilarious as they watch either the win get snatched out of their hands or vice
versa (not sure which team’s announcers are even on the call). He can close too
– doesn’t quite come up with this one but you can see the burst and
aggressiveness (the receiver is KJ Hamler btw):
He’s got the bloodlines too, as he is
the son of former NFL-er Art Schlichter.
19. Oakland
Raiders select CESAR RUIZ, C, MICHIGAN
I’m probably generally sticking to the
accepted script too much through the first 20 or so picks so I need to start
getting wild, because that’s what NFL teams do, they get wild. Particularly
once we get into the 20s, when they start drafting the LJ Colliers of the
world.
Ruiz doesn’t fall into that group,
though. He’s awesome. Watching Ruiz is like watching a Pouncey twin as he just
ping-pongs through the defensive levels popping dudes in the face at each stop,
like a trucker just knocking out glory holes as he brings knockoff wireless
speakers from Amazon across America. He’s arguably stouter than Pouncey A and
Pouncey B as well. I believe the Raiders need some OL help, so here it is. I
doubt they need any glory hole help.
20. Jacksonville
Jaguars select CJ HENDERSON, CB, FLORIDA
Boring Florida team selects boring
Florida cornerback and bores their way to 7-9 while Doug Marrone chases away
any player who dares to excel on the field. CJ Henderson has the build and
athletic traits of top corners, though he didn’t run any agility drills (that’s
the one area where I think RAS could be improved – guys that don’t do certain
drills should have certain flags shown). But based on the size, 40 and bench
press, he’s a top 0.2% athlete at the position. And this is NFL cornerback,
perhaps the most Twitched-up place on Earth this side of a Fortnite lobby.
But what does he do? I didn’t see this
guy do much of anything. It’s hard to judge corners without All-22, but he just
looked like a guy to me even in his highlight tapes. You know, a JAG. Hey! This
makes perfect sense! This is a roster full of just a guys, destined to just a
guy their way to 6 wins in a part of the country no one pays attention to.
Jacksonville just re-opened their beaches in the middle of a historic pandemic
and there’s still not a soul alive that gives a shit about it. It’s ok
Jacksonville it gets better.
21. Philadelphia
Eagles select a GOT DAMN RECEIVER
Which one? Hmmm…not sure Shenault
makes sense. I don’t think Mims is nuanced enough to save a team by himself.
Reagor? Maybe but I think they want a more prototypical #1. Justin Jefferson?
This I could see, he’s like a version of Jordan Matthews who can actually run.
I got it.
Philadelphia
Eagles select DONOVAN PEOPLES-JONES, WR, MICHIGAN
DPJ was dinged for a lack of
production, but people finally realized recently that hey, maybe his QB being
complete pigeonshit might have contributed to this. Hey DPJ, produce, would
ya????
He would later make a really nice TD
catch on that drive so all’s well that end’s well!
Ok, so Shea Patterson sucks. We all
know this now. Still, outside of maybe DeAndre Hopkins and a few other examples
in the NFL, top tier WRs still find a way to produce, even with shitty QBs,
right? Well….not really. It wasn’t just that the throws weren’t great, even
though that helped to highlight DPJ’s ability to catch balls that are
off-target. Much like Calvin Johnson at Georgia Tech, the opportunities just
weren’t there. GT has always run that triple option from 1940 so it was no
surprise there and no one held that against Megatron because why would you, but
in Michigan’s case, it was that their QB was so limited that they couldn’t run
a normal offense. Brilliant tactician Jim “VIOLENTLY ATTACK LIFE WITH YOUR
TALONS AT 700%!!!” Harbaugh schemed up a bunch of runs and WR screens to work
around this and I gotta say, it was as exciting as shrink-wrapping pallets. As
Harbaugh always tells his players, “VICTORY IS BREASTMILK AND COMPETITION IS THE
TITTIES!”. Or something like that.
So if you want to watch a guy
stalk-block corners for 60 plays a game, turn on some Michigan film and hone in
on number nine. When he’s not doing that though he’s a big fast WR that can
jump out the gym, go up and get the ball, get separation through his route-running,
and control his body really well in the air when the ball gets somewhat near
him. I have a feeling that he’ll sneak into the back-end of the first round,
between this, the five-star pedigree and the fact that he just looks like
receivers are “supposed” to look. Plus he has the coolest name ever. Should
just change it to Peoples-Elbow.
22. Minnesota
Vikings select A.J. Terrell, CB, Clemson
The Vikings have no corners and if
they want one they can use this season they should take one now. WR can wait
until round 2. There are a handful of guys left who you can look at and say
“this guy has a good chance to become an NFL regular” and Terrell is one of
them. He’s feisty, his technique is decent, he seems to have pretty good speed,
and his ball skills are decent as well. He’s like a boring corner but in a good
way in that he’s usually covering his guy pretty well. The non-descript corner
seems to be one that Mike Zimmer is into, as he continues to coast off
reputation from years ago.
23. New
England trades down because that’s just like what they do
New England trades with Kansas City
for a pick swap and then like KC’s next 43 7th rounders
Kansas City selects KRISTIAN FULTON, CB, LSU
This guys is very similar to AJ
Terrell to me, just kind of boringly covers up his man, missionary style.
KRISTIAN MISSIONARY! It’s not going to catch on.
I think I like this guy a bit more
than Terrell actually, but I am rushing this and so I’m not going to sit down
and split these hairs.
24. New
Orleans Saints select PATRICK QUEEN, ILB, LSU
I really like Patrick Queen. Over the
past few years, it’s been a lot of “hey look here’s another linebacker that
reads like Floyd Mayweather” but Queen is not that guy. He reads at a 12th
grade level, and then moves forward/backwards, side-to-side, and even
diagonally to attack. He’s often the first guy to the ball, even if the play is
going away from him:
He’s also a really good timed athlete.
What’s not to love?
Wellllll he’s about 220 lbs playing
middle linebacker and that leads to a lot of unfinished plays. But while this
is true, he’s getting dinged for missing tackles that other players wouldn’t be
in position to miss. The Ryan Shazier dilemma. I personally was always on the
side of “go wreck shop in the backfield and if you miss hopefully a fluffer
linebacker will clean it up” over “hey just sit back a few yards and let
running backs just kind of run into you and stuff”.
25. Minnesota
Vikings select JALEN REAGOR, WR, TCU
Great, another TCU guy. It’s like
being maced by Youtube.
My weirdest player comp this year is
Jalen Reagor. I compare him to Peter Warrick. This move is dripping hot:
He’s a downfield homerun threat, jukey
YAC monster, leaper that goes up over anyone and makes crazy highlight grabs
out of the sky, guy who goes to the Combine and doesn’t run nearly as fast as
people expected. He’s probably lucky that all of the Dillard’s stores are
closed right now because who knows where the similarities end?
Reagor was expected to run a great
time, but barely cracked sub-4.5. His agility numbers were horrible. How can a guy
who broke ankles all over the field corner that slowly? I have no idea. The
only thing in Texas more electric than Reagor are the chairs. The jumping
metrics by the way do show up when he makes highlight reel catches.
From the metrics it does appear that
he just starts slow for whatever reason, at least regarding straight line
speed, as the 10- and 20-yard splits are awful but the final time is good. 22.8
mph by the way is extremely high, the only guys this year I’ve found that have
a faster top speed are Ruggs and Javelin Guidry. And maybe that explains why
most of his big plays are go routes. Maybe Reagor is Peter Warrick, and what
worked in college just isn’t going to work all that well in the pros. But I
just feel like his numbers don’t really reflect how fast this dude is and hell,
the Vikings might want to run back the Percy Harvin experiment one more time.
26. Miami
Dolphins select PRINCE TEGA WANOGHO, OT, AUBURN
We are in the presence of royalty!
Wanogho was born in Nigeria and came
over to the US for his senior year of high school after showing enough in a
camp to interest a private school in Alabama. Oh, it was a basketball camp, by
the way. Basketball was his first sport and the school’s basketball coach was
his Sandra Bullock. Wanogho was taken to a football practice to watch his
adoptive family’s son, who was a QB for the football team, and he was either
interested in trying it out or was asked when the coach saw this giant kid on
the sideline not destroying people on the field and wondered “hey why isn’t
this guy out here destroying people on the field, I’ve seen The Blind Side so I
know this obviously is going to work” or something like that…I forget exactly
and I don’t want to go and re-read it. So obviously they put him on the field
(in this case at defensive end), give him a quick Cliff Notes and he’s
all-state or whatever. But he still wanted to play basketball because he grew
up dreaming of becoming Scott Skiles. Or maybe someone else, I’m not sure.
Unfortunately, he suffered a really
bad leg injury that season that was serious enough to legitimately threaten his
career prospects in any sport and that was the end of that. Football coaches
had been recruiting him all year (he famously said “who’s Nick Saban?” when asked
if Saban had contacted him because he knew nothing about college football) and
he appreciated that Auburn came to see him in the hospital and kept their offer
on the table. So he committed to Auburn and once he got there, they convinced
him to bulk up to play offensive line and here we are. So he’s only been
playing OL for a few years in college.
Now I read that this guy is raw and a
developmental prospect and all that and while that may be true, I think he’s
already pretty good. He moves really well, he seems to be strong enough, the
technique I don’t think is bad and he mirrors well and I think he’ll go higher
than projected. Offensive tackles are in demand – I mean, Gosder Cherilus went
in the first round one year. Once you get to the 20s in most years, the
blue-chipper types are gone and essentially it’s just an early start to round
2. And obviously, weird picks happen every year. If I would have mocked Tytus
Howard to Houston last year people would have laughed and told me to stop
making fun of Bill O’Brien.
And of course I like watching OL run
at little corners with bad intentions:
27. Seattle
Seahawks either trade down or make a baffling late first round selection
This has become an annual tradition.
I can’t come up with a baffling
selection or a trade down scenario that I like so instead I’ll give them one of
my favorite guys this year that I want to get into the first round.
Seattle
Seahawks select NEVILLE GALLIMORE, DT, OKLAHOMA
I compare Gallimore to Javon Hargrave.
He’s a spark plug type penetrating DL that has some actual rush moves outside
bull rushing and shooting gaps.
I’ve always like the smallish, quick
and powerful DT archetype, particularly as the NFL becomes less and less about
pure mass. Of course it usually swings back at this point as if it were one of
Joe Exotic’s husbands but that’s another matter. Everyone needs depth at OL and
DL pretty much every year and I think Gallimore goes round 1.
28. Baltimore
Ravens select KENNETH MURRAY, ILB, OKLAHOMA
I want to give them a WR here and I
was considering Justin Jefferson but I don’t know if he’s weird enough to be a
legitimate Ravens first round WR selection. If DPJ were available I might slot
him here. They need at least one actual WR to complement Hollywood Brown and I
think he should be a well-rounded type and not another track star who runs fast
in a straight line. How long can you have Willie Snead playing this role? Ehhh,
I guess for another year. The Ravens might want a break from drafting first
round receivers and this team goes defense with what seems like 80% of their
picks so I’m going to have then filling another glaring need at ILB.
Murray is under-the-radar polarizing.
He looks like fuckin’ Robocop, he’s a really solid tackler and a great athlete,
he’s the all business ILB type, etc. etc. What’s not to love? Well, he’s an ILB
so you can guess what I’m going to say.
Look at him just waiting there on 2nd
and 2 for the RB to come to him. And this one:
Where is he going? There is nothing in
this play that suggests that the ball is going to go where he goes and he just
runs himself right out of position to make the tackle before the play even
really starts. The LSU-Oklahoma game is full of either tentative
decision-making or quicker but outright wrong reads and based on that game
alone he’s like a round 3 player at best. Yeah, he’s a significantly more solid
tackler and inside presence than Patrick Queen. But if Patrick Queen misses the
tackle in the first gif, at least he’s missing it 2 yards deep in the backfield
and making it difficult for the back to get to the sticks. You don’t even have
to block Murray on this play because he’s a non-factor as far as preventing a
first down is concerned. Maybe it’s play design – we obviously don’t know what
teams are drawing up on each play and maybe the safety is blitzing by design
here and Murray is playing this perfectly but I doubt that, and his tape is
full of it, and it’s why he’s not Patrick Willis. Xavier McKinney plays it
better than that and he’s a safety. The Ravens might like that he’s in the CJ
Mosley mold and maybe they think that this is correctable and he’ll develop
into a guy who plays more like he does in some other games.
Against Baylor he looked really good
early but by the end it seemed like he was making questionable or late
decisions again. I don’t know if you can correct that. Perhaps you can, and if
so, it’s really the only thing holding Murray back from being a guy I’d say
could be a top tier NFL linebacker. He’s a beast of a tackler and while he
maybe doesn’t show the greatest coverage instincts either, he moves quite well
dropping into his zones and chasing down receivers. If he gets better at this
or it can be schemed around to some degree, he could be really, really good. I
just know that I would bet against it.
29. Tennessee
Titans select JOSH UCHE, EDGE, MICHIGAN
This is a tough one. I’m sure the
Titans would be furiously messaging other teams on the Zoom trying to trade out
but which player is another team going to trade up for?
Tennessee’s biggest needs are Edge, OT
and DT, and instead of potentially “reaching” for an OT since there are still a
ton of them left, I’ll have them “reach” for an Edge since there are basically
none of them left and who are you going to get at the end of Round 2? Terrell
Lewis? Nah I’m good.
Now I don’t like Uche either – he goes
long stretches doing nothing and his game against Iowa was a Tristan Wirfs
highlight tape outside of a few plays.
But he is another twitched up freak athlete who looks and moves like top
NFL edge rushers do, and I think that’s enough to get him wildly overdrafted in
the hopes that he becomes Danielle Hunter. He does rush really well at times up
the middle on plays designed for him because he’s so damn explosive but you
can’t just draw up every play for one guy. I still think he finds a way to
sneak into the first round based on athletic ability alone. Guys like this are
rare and they generally don’t last long.
He didn’t do anything at the Combine
due to injury, and without the ability to run at a Pro Day it might hurt him to
not have verified numbers available to prove that the athletic ability is real.
Perhaps GMs remember Jachai Polite looking like a freak athlete on the field
before running drills like Rich Eisen. Could happen but I’ll take my chances
here.
30. Green
Bay Packers select JUSTIN JEFFERSON, WR, LSU
Aaron Rodgers will probably threaten
to play the entire season left-handed if the Packers don’t take a WR here. The
hard part for me is predicting which one they take.
First option is Denzel Mims, who is a
6’4” track star in the DK Metcalf mold who really excels making difficult contested
catches as well. Mims, however, is really raw coming out of Baylor’s system and
he really just doesn’t even run routes. He kind of just runs to a spot. I don’t
think this would fly in Green Bay, where they already have a roster full of
Denzel Mims types. Mims would be their best Mims easily, but they don’t need
more Mimses right now with all the choices available.
Second option is Laviska Shenault, who
is basically Derrick Henry playing receiver. He’s like Shaq Thompson and Myles
Jack – he essentially played running back half the time as a wildcat QB and his
RAC ability is ridiculous. He’s another guy that can get open deep but his 40
time was concerning (4.58) and he’s also not the most polished receiver. I
doubt he’s going to be running wildcat snaps in Green Bay.
Could be KJ Hamler? I really like
Hamler, he’s fast as all hell but he’s basically Marquise Brown and I don’t
know if Green Bay can risk potentially setting off their Real Housewife of a QB
by giving him a 5’9” sprite in the first round. He also doesn’t have Combine
times so there’s nothing concrete to verify the speed, which I think might be
important to a GM picking a guy like Hamler in the first. I do however think he
would pair well with Davante Adams and it’s not like you’re taking a Florida
kid here and sending him to the arctic – this is a guy from Michigan who played
at Penn State. Regardless I’m going to bet against it.
Brandon Aiyuk? Doubt it. Tee Higgins?
I don’t think so but maybe.
My bet is Justin Jefferson. It seems
that people thought he was just a generic WR who was the product of playing at
LSU with Burrow, and then he went to the Combine and ran like a top-flite NFL
WR and his draft stock (at least on the Twitters) skyrocketed. He’s a true WR
that can play the position, not just a deep guy or a speed mismatch or
whathaveyou. He’s almost like a twitchy Reggie Wayne (I don’t mean that Reggie
Wayne was just shot multiple times by Marvin Harrison, I mean twitchy like
athletic). Is he too similar to Davante Adams? I don’t think it’s a problem to
have two well-rounded WR types and he’s fast enough that Green Bay won’t have
to rely so heavily on their stable of Budget Mimses to stretch the field.
31. San
Francisco 49ers trade out
Not an ideal situation for them here.
I think Grant Delpit could be a trade target, so I’m going to make that happen.
San
Francisco trades with Cleveland for some shit, I don’t know who cares they’ll
figure it out
Cleveland
Browns select GRANT DELPIT, S, LSU
This might still be too high for
Delpit – a lot of mocks have him well into the middle of round 2 – and maybe
I’m still putting too much stock into the name value. I’m not going to drop him
just because the numbers were down last year, I mean that happens particularly
to DBs.
The main knock against Delpit is that
he misses a lot of tackles and I mean, yeah but a lot of guys miss some tackles
but hold up wait a second what the fuck
Delpit sure isn’t Derwin James in that
regard. I’ve read that this game was a bit of an anomaly even by Delpit
standards but I mean holy frosted shit.
Other than that Delpit is a first round type of safety - his blitzing
ability is what most reminds me of James, his man coverage ability is actually
really good for a safety, and he can play deep zones pretty well. He finds the
ball, he flies up to make tackles, he also flies up to miss tackles but at
least he’s still flying, and he has like a white dude’s name for some reason.
Like, it would look good on a realtor sign. If he screamed “FOR SALE BY GRANT
DELPIT!” every time he made a big play I would by his jersey immediately.
I really have no idea what to think of
Delpit and he didn’t run in Indianapolis so any questions about his true timed
speed may drop him well beyond this but he’s got a ton of first round traits at
the position and in a meh class like this I think that might be enough to get
him into the first Google Hangouts session.
32. New
England selects JORDAN LOVE, QB, UTAH
This is why I think that teams with
old QBs (and even teams with QBs like Stafford who are getting up there and
whom you could see yourself moving on from if you wanted to), when a guy drops
to you, you should strongly consider taking him. I bet Belichick is kicking
himself over not taking Lamar Jackson when he had the chance and the
opportunity just presented itself to them. The Steelers were very interested in
Dak Prescott but instead took a developmental OL because “HOW IS A QB GOING TO
HELP US WIN NOW!”. I know they took Mason Rudolph and he has sucked fat asshole
but so do most 3rd rounders. Was Malik Jefferson going to help them win now?
Probably not.
So now the Patriots are essentially
forced to take whatever QB is available to the year that they need one, and
this year the pickins are slim after the top two. Most years are like this.
That’s why I always suggest picking falling Q Bs
during particularly good years at the position.
Anyway Love is the typical “toolsy” QB
that will probably be overdrafted by a QB-needy team, though at this range in
the draft it makes some sense. To me, Love is the anti-Kaepernick, in that he
throws with so much touch that it actually often works to his detriment. He’s
got a nice arm but often times he just floats nice catchable balls into windows
that demand a bullet before they close violently:
There are multiple examples of it and
I don’t understand it but at least it shows that he CAN throw with touch if
someone can develop this skillset. He also had his numbers fall way off last
year; in fact they are a huge red flag as I cannot think of any decent NFL QB
who put up anything like a 20 TD/17 INT year before going to the NFL. Even Josh
Allen last year wasn’t anywhere close to that and this was mentioned as a flag
for him. These are like, Trevor Siemien numbers.
So what happened? Obviously the team
was worse, and his receivers were slow and underwhelming, though one of them
was a contested catch gawd who definitely helped Love more than he hurt him and
the others were definitely sufficient enough for a first round draft pick
playing in the Mountain West. But really, he just made a ton of of Winstonian
decisions:
Oddly enough the game that gave me the
most hope for him was against LSU, where his team was thoroughly outclassed at
every spot on the field and it was his “worst” game from a numbers perspective
but to me he looked decent under very tough conditions and got absolutely zero
help on this particular day. (Much like Drew Lock last year).
When I mention that Tua and Burrow can
just throw it up to a single-covered WR who will come down with it for a TD, I
generally mean plays like this where it doesn’t work the same way for guys like
Love and Herbert:
That corner (might be Fulton) plays
that perfectly, doesn’t allow the WR to get into position to make a contested
catch and goes and gets the ball himself. You don’t see that happen when Burrow
tosses one up to Jamarr Chase or Justin Jefferson.
The good bits aside though, Love just
makes too many bad reads and also commits too quickly, and teams figured that
out and started jumping them, which would explain a lot of the hospital balls
like the GIF above. New England probably won’t actually take him and even
though he’s actually generally accurate, he’s got so much to improve on in this
regard that I don’t think he’s going to do much in the NFL. He also tends to
run at the first hint of pressure instead of maneuvering within the pocket and
once he gets off his block he’s just running wildly, there’s not many instances
that I saw where he actually resets and makes a sound throw.
OTHER PLAYERS WATCHED:
These guys were given at least a
minute each:
QBs
Jalen Hurts – No. He is so scattershot
and does not run nearly well enough that I would consider him before round 6 or
something. His vision when running is superb but that’s about it.
Jacob Eason – Man I want to like Jacob
Eason. If it were just throwing the ball he might be my favorite QB in the
entire class, and that’s including Burrow. But he simply does not read
defenses. He takes the snap, focuses on where he thinks the ball is supposed to
go, and that’s who he throws it to. EVERY. TIME. I had some gifs of this but I
can’t seem to find them and I doubt anyone cares enough that it would be worth
going back and re-making them but it’s ridiculous how limited he is at this. I
say it often but this is the stuff Lamar Jackson got unfairly hammered for and
that you might not hear more than once about Eason. He originally started at
Georgia but lost his job to Jake Fromm and I have to think that this is the
main reason for that. This alone is enough to tank his draft stock IMO.
Jake Fromm – Another guy who I
actually kind of like but just can’t get over his lack of juice throwing the
ball. I just had a front row seat to a half-season of Duck Hodges and I don’t
think many other teams want to watch it after hearing the reviews. He is at
least more aggressive than Duck but this is under most circumstances not an NFL
arm.
James Morgan – I kinda like this guy.
It wasn’t easy at all there and he did miss throws he shouldn’t have missed but
he did also throw some dimes down the sidelines. As a 5th rounder or so you
could do a lot worse.
Anthony Gordon – No. He is not Gardner
Minshew. Nooooo.
Cole McDonald – I expected to hate
this guy but I love him. He throws super weird but outside of some meltdowns
(it really snowballs with this guy) he’s actually really accurate most of the
time. He’s also a great athlete. He might not even get drafted but I would take
him over a lot of the guys higher on these “lists”.
RBs
D’Andre Swift – Will probably go first
round, the prototype modern NFL RB. He is a shifty runner and a really good
pass catcher 3-down type RB. I like him but I don’t love him.
JK Dobbins – I think he’s Emmitt
Smith. Does everything well. But Emmitt Smith is Emmitt Smith for a reason and
I don’t think that’s a great key to NFL success for most players. Zeke Elliott
IMO was many times more impressive at OSU.
Johnathan Taylor – Has the track speed
but to me he doesn’t play that fast. Expected to love him, came away quite meh.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire – He’s explosive
but I think D’Andre Swift is a more consistent version of Helaire as a runner
in addition to having the great receiving ability.
Zack Moss – Perhaps my favorite RB
this year. Great contact balance:
Also has some burst. However while he
often does well pass blocking, he has moments where it’s like he’s just daydreaming
or something:
But that’s not enough to exclude Moss
in round 4-ish as my top value pick for RBs.
WRs
Denzel Mims – Like I mentioned
earlier, this guy is a jet of a wide receiver who in addition to legit
track-champ speed has real catch-point abilities.
But he has a long way to go from a
technique/route running standpoint. Being talked about as a first rounder now
but I think he slips to the 2nd.
KJ Hamler – Like this guy a lot but
too many WRs and he’s way too five foot nine to get put into the first.
Laviska Shenault – Named after an 80’s
European automobile, he’s Derek Henry or Corey Dillon playing WR. He actually
kind of reminds me of Justin Blackmon (no idea why he comes up every year) at
times but isn’t the actual receiver that Blackmon was and he’s got speed
questions. I could see him going in the first though.
Tee Higgins – I don’t like receivers
that can’t separate well. Higgins is one of them though he does show some
ability to do it, certainly more than N’Keal Harry ever showed. But I wouldn’t
take him early in this class.
Chase Claypool – Oh great, another
Notre Dame WR that everyone ignored until he blew up the Combine. You should
have learned your lesson with Miles Boykin.
TEs
Adam Trautman – He’s way too “playing
at Dayton” to tell how good he is, though I do think he’ll be good in the NFL.
Probably a late 2nd rounder. I just couldn’t really tell watching him.
Hunter Bryant – A really good slot WR
but that’s all he is, a slot WR. He’s like 6’2” 225ish and he cannot play
in-line TE effectively IMO. Even at Washington he was getting knocked all over
the place when they had him line up there. Also looks much faster on tape than
he ran at the Combine but this guy is a really, really good pass catcher. No
idea where to expect him to go this week.
Brycen Hopkins – Legit NFL receiving
TE, just not at an obvious first-round caliber. He’ll probably be a good
NFL-er.
Thaddeus Moss – A bit more of a
traditional TE style than Hopkins. I like him but I like Hopkins and probably
even Trautman more but if Moss (and yes he is related to that Moss) becomes the
best of this group I wouldn’t be surprised at all. He’s a good receiving TE,
just not as explosive as Hopkins and Trautman.
OTs
Josh Jones – Meh. He’s decent but I
don’t get the first round hype.
Austin Jackson – Strong bench but he
doesn’t play to it, which makes sense because real power comes from the legs
when you’re trying to move people. I’m not impressed at all with his tape.
Lucas Niang – I like Niang quite a bit
but couldn’t fit him into the mock. Part of the TCU optical assault
unfortunately. He’s a bit of a plodder at times and has raw technique (this
drop for example is kinda slow and clunky):
…but he’s a strong people-mover of a
tackle and he too is Ogden-sized at 6’7” 350ish or whatever he goes, he just
doesn’t move quite as well.
Isaiah Wilson – I watched three plays
and came away impressed and that was enough for me because honestly are we done
yet
Ezra Cleveland – lit the Combine up
and has elite LT measurables but he’s just a guy on his tapes. Not impressed. I
don’t think he’ll be bad or anything I just wouldn’t take him in the first.
Matthew Peart – Liked him more than I
thought I would. Moves well and has functional strength. He’s the guy moving
the RB in the hole:
Saahdiq Charles – I think he’ll be
half decent as well in the league but he just doesn’t move or block like the
other guys.
Interior OL
Lloyd Cushenberry – Just not first
round material IMO. Not bad but after deciding he wasn’t going top 32 I moved
on.
Interior DL
Ross Blacklock – The closest to the
first round DTs in my opinion. This guy is a player and I do like him, just
didn’t have a spot for him.
Justin Madubuike – Specimen of an
athlete, 9.5+ RAS score, does jack shit on tape and is often single-blocked
with no problem at all for the OL. Great, he’s Rashede Hagemann. Do not want.
Marlon Davidson – I think he could be
good but Auburn did him no favors and played him like a legit edge rusher. This
guy is like 310 lbs. He’s hard to project but I do like him.
EDGE
Yetur Gross-Matos – I wanted to put
him in the first but couldn’t find the right spot. Not super twitchy but has
enough burst but dear Lord this dude is great with his hands, which by itself
may be enough for Robert Kraft to insist that the Patriots draft him. He sheds
blockers by routine and it’s no surprise he racked up so many TFLs at Penn
State. Fits best in a 3-4 IMO and I see a bit of Cameron Jordan here.
AJ Epenesa – When Epenesa was a
freshman, I watched him play against Penn State and just dominate them and
thought “this dude is going to be a top 5 pick”. He was a rare 5-star recruit
who went to Iowa and it just screamed top pick. But he didn’t dominate like
that too often and he might just be a tweener in the wrong era. A big dude
stuck as an edge rusher in a league where speed and bending the edge is the
ticket to success there. He might still go first round but he just doesn’t
really have the juice that you typically see at the position.
Zack Baun – I like Zack Baun, just
don’t love him. His pass rush moves are good, he’s really good at turning into
the pocket and getting to the QB, he just doesn’t win enough that I’d take him
in the top 30 or so. But if he turned into a good NFL edge guy I wouldn’t be
shocked.
Terrell Lewis – Hard pass. Shows
nothing IMO. I think he’s a late round guy.
Julian Okwara – Not consistent enough
but he’s got the measurables to develop into something. Long limbed pass rusher
who also shows some ability to work back to the QB from around the edge. He’s
projected 3rd round but I’d be happy with him at many spots in the 2nd.
K’Lavon Chiasson – NO idea why this
guy is the consensus #2 edge rusher and considered a lock first rounder. He
does almost nothing. Everyone blocks him without much difficulty. Supposedly
he’s one of Orgeron’s guys and a true leader type and they all love him and
Coach O hypes him up to NFL coaches but I don’t want to draft this guy anywhere
near the first round.
LB
Willie Gay Jr – I considered slipping
him into the back of the first as a surprise crazy pick but there were too many
ILBs still available. This guy is a ridiculous athlete and crazyperson in the
Ray Lewis mold (and a lot of teams love that), but he’s also raw as all hell
and also, well, a crazyperson who was suspended for fighting his teammates last
year and has only started 6 games. He’s going to go earlier than people think
and they are gonna be like “who?” and I’m gonna be like, Willie Gay Jr. stupids
he’s a badass freak who will break faces on the field when he’s not running
himself out of every single play. No, he is not the son of former Steeler
William Gay.
CB
Jaylon Johnson – Didn’t seem all that
special, at least not first round special.
Noah Igbinoghene – This dude has
played corner for all of two seasons, and he’s getting first round hype, but
outside of Richard Sherman those guys don’t pan out all that often. He’s
aggressive as shit and has some real athletic ability as a man cover corner but
he’s sooooo damn raw. He moves in ways that remind me of Artie Burns, and we
all know how that worked out. (Top of the screen)
Trevon Diggs – Nope. (Bottom of the
screen)
He might be fine as a 2nd
starter/depth guy as an off-ball corner, but I don’t see NFL first or second
round corner here. Guys run by him too easily and he just looked lost there
trying to locate the ball. (Jamarr Chase is gonna be insane btw)
Safety
Disclaimer – Safety is hard as hell to
analyze without all-22 views. They are out of the screen for most of the play
so for me it’s often just a guessing game.
Terrell Burgess – Made some nice run
stops:
He just didn’t do anything that screamed “take me in the first!”.
Neither did:
Ashtyn Davis (though he did have a
nice INT of Herbert) – btw here’s a gif of Eason just looking right at a guy
and throwing him right into a defender. Not sure if Davis was supposed to cover
him OR if he just realized “hey this is where Eason is going with the ball
because he’s Eason” and jumped it.
Jeremy Chinn – Super all-time elite
athlete at the position who wasn’t even all that impressive in highlight tapes.
Has a lot of INTs so I’m sure he’s doing something right but they aren’t
playing top competition at Southern Illinois. Generally if a safety isn’t impressive
even in highlight tapes then I won’t put them in the first round.
Was impressive but only for running
over people at a D-3 school
Kyle Dugger – Yeah his highlights are
ridiculous but it’s not like Nasir Adderley where they are all plays on the
ball. It’s a guy with NFL measurables running over kids at Lenoir Rhyne
University. Yeah he might be a decent NFL player but he’s not going to run
roughshod over the Chicago Bears.
Kickers/Punters
Hahaha stfu
Alright, finally another one in the
books.
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