Ooooook so it's that time again, yay. Jk, this year was the first year where I was like ehhhh not sure I wanna do all these so we'll see what Todd McNeigh does next year but for this year all systems is go sonz
So gonna do it a little differently this year. First, some player rankings of the dudes I watched. Some maybe two, even three games! Most like one or less cuz I gots things to do yall.
Also note: a player comp doesn't necessarily mean I think
that the draft player will end up like the comp player. It's often just
stylistic or perhaps there are certain similarities that stand out.
Doesn't look like those are going to display all that well. Whatevs.
Anyway, time flies, dogs. It’s already draft time again, and that
means it’s time for the 2021 version of the Business Horse NFL Mock Draft
Extravaganza. As always, everything here is 100% guaranteed to happy exactly as
mocked. Jk, it’s a combination of what I think will happen and what I think
should happen, though mostly what I think will happen. This year I’ve done it a
bit differently – I will post some tables below ranking the players that I
watched to make this and where I’d “grade” them if I were one of [i]those[/i]
weirdos. Everyone on this list was watched on Youtube between 1 and maybe like
8 minutes, so there’s not a whole lot backing this up. However, I have a lot of
theories on the draft, and one of them is that it’s mostly driven by groupthink
and maybe teams would be better….I don’t know, not watching only 8 minutes but
perhaps not having rooms of 10 scouts watch some guard’s reach blocking for 3
hours. Hell, even mine is driven by groupthink, as I have to find a list of
players to even watch somewhere, but I do try to watch as independently as
possible from existing rankings and write-ups.
Also, this year I’ve cut back significantly on the gifs. Not
sure if they add enough for all of the hassle they are to capture and post. I
pretty much stopped collecting them a third of the way through my “scouting”.
1. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS – TREVOR LAWRENCE, QB, CLEMSON
Guh. Another one of these fuckers? I could have pulled
another 10+ examples of Lawrence creating massive dipshittery but we don’t have
the bandwidth for that. He makes Winstonian decisions every single game, and
they mostly get dropped. All of the “Justin Fields can’t process” shit? I don’t
think it’s made up – and I’ll get to that – but Lawrence is worse. He decides
where he’s going to throw, takes the snap, stares that guy down, and throws it
hell or high water to that receiver. He did improve at this as he went on but
he was still seriously limited, almost to a Jacob Eason-esque level. I read all
of these “great processor”/”goes through progressions quickly”/”super smart
decision maker” etc etc type shit and wonder, what the hell are these people
watching that I’m not seeing? What was so smart about immediately deciding
where he’s going with that ball against Miami in the gif above and throwing it
blindly? To be fair, it was 4th down, and maybe he was told to go
there. But if he’s just being told where to go with the ball, how is that all
that much better? Jared Goff looked good when he was told where to go with the
ball, too.
On top of that, half of Clemson’s plays are just catch-and-throws
at the line of scrimmage (LOS). YAC-ity YAC. Check the graphic below from his
win over Alabama in the 2018 championship game:
Those yards deep down the right were mostly YAC, too. He
threw a (nice) 20 yard dart to a hook route, the WR shook the defender (who
wasn’t all that close) and went 60 more yards for the TD. I’ve never seen
another offense with as many of what I will refer to as “bullshit yards”. Here’s
where I note that I (we) don’t know everything that NFL teams know. After Josh
Allen and Justin Herbert, I simply have to think differently. Josh Allen
apparently didn’t even have a QB coach at Wyoming and literally had never been
taught anything other than the basics of like how to take a snap and stuff in
his life before he was drafted. We didn’t know it was [i]thaaaat[/] bad (though
I still wouldn’t have ranked him highly – this is not an excuse). We know
Justin Herbert’s situation at Oregon was far from ideal – and I noted that last
year – but perhaps it was significantly worse than we thought. But Lawrence
holds ball possession in the same regard as Greyworm. What’s his excuse? Clemson is absolutely stacked. They probably
have an assistant-to-the-QB-coach position. The skill positions are loaded with
NFL talent. Yet over the last two years, it’s been a winter tradition for
another top QB to come in and just, uhhh, throw circles around Lawrence. Last
year before I got really deep into it, I liked Lawrence more than Burrow going
into that championship game. Watching that game however (I don’t watch much
college football) made it abundantly clear that Burrow was amazing and Lawrence
left something to be desired for such a “generational” QB prospect. Then Justin
Fields came in and did it again. I don’t think it’s all that surprising that
Clemson ran so many “trick”-ish plays in the red zone to try and create space
for throws through movement and misdirection. This was an interesting play from
the game against OSU where they ran a normal play, Lawrence threw it to a
covered WR, and the other WR got quite animated after the play:
(Maybe the ref was in the way and maybe he was yelling at
something else, but I found it interesting given everything I’ve seen so far)
But – after Allen and Herbert (and even Daniel Jones to a degree),
I have to change my perception of college QBs. Lawrence is a really, really
good athlete and can fuckin’ wing it. He throws lasers to every level. His deep
throws are majestic. He’s generally accurate. Should, say, having like 5
turnover worthy plays against Pitt of all teams concern people? Yeah, I think
it should. Should carrying the ball like a briefcase while blindly running into
two blitzing LBs be a concern? Yeah (he’s probably gonna fumble a LOT). But
would I still take Lawrence first overall? Even as much as I dislike his QB
abilities outside of pure running and throwing – I probably would. The tools
are that good, and that seems to be what works now. How will that play with
Urban Meyer, who has been coasting on reputation since like 2004 and running
the same dumb offense for 20 years? Well, that’s another story. Somebody plz watch dumb Jags games for me and
let me know how it works out, k thx.
2. NEW YORK JETS – ZACH WILSON, QB, BYU
Ok, I have another galaxy brain theory. Perhaps the Jets
realized late last year that they actually liked Wilson more than Lawrence, but
they knew that there would be hella pressure on them to take Lawrence and as
they are indeed the Jets, they were absolutely swayed by this? And they
thought, hell fellow jetplanes - we don’t want to become a Jordan/Bowie
punchline, so let’s just win a game here and try to get the number 2 spot.
That probably didn’t happen, but if it did, I would understand.
The more I watched Zach Wilson, the more I liked him. He has some Joe Burrow in
him in that he’s just throwing deadeye accurate passes from all angles, doesn’t
matter if he’s running straight to the sideline falling sideways or what. Yet
he does it at a much faster pace – he looks more like Kyler Murray than Burrow
when he’s on the move. He’s got plenty of arm, generally makes good decisions,
and he appeared to have the clutchiness too – the final drive against Coastal
Carolina should have been a game winner if not for I believe either some drops
or a penalty or something (it’s been awhile, alright?). I think this guy is
awesome.
The bad? Beyond having a ‘Zach’ as your QB, which just seems
weird? Well, sometimes if he has the ball too long he gets jittery and just
goes feral (see gif above). While Sam Darnold had more a tic where he just ran
to his right, Random Zach will go just about anywhere (which I would prefer
handily to the Darnold thing). He does seem to get rattled sometimes if things
are going against him and every now and again he’ll just bounce a pass or
something like that. He played a lower level of competition than the most top
QB prospects, though of course that also means he has complete randos on his
offense around him. And he did struggle a bit against the best team he faced
(Coastal Carolina), though it’s not like he was bad in that game and he did
come up with a last minute drive down to the goal line with a chance to win it.
All in all, I think he’s gonna be awesome.
3. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS – JUSTIN FIELDS,
QB, AN OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY
Ok here’s where the draft starts! I think I’m the 8,483,475th
person to say that. The Niners in all likely did not trade up to this spot to
take Vontae Mack, so I have to give them a QB here. Initially I had Trey Lance,
because I bought into that whole “they made the trade after Trey Lance’s Pro
Day!” jazz. But I want to avoid groupthink – which would suggest either Lance
or Mac Jernz – and I’m going to give them the best QB of the group IMO, which is
Justin Fields.
Now, I have Justin Fields as “Top 15”, which would suggest I
don’t really like him. That’s not the case. With Justin Fields, similar to
Dwayne Haskins and his (lack of) deep accuracy, I just have one major concern.
In Fields’ case it is the “slow processer” stuff you keep hearing. Now, the
stuff about him not throwing to his 2nd read? That’s complete
nonsense. I just he’s too slow to react. So it may not really even be that he’s
slow to process, just slow to pull the trigger. It’s similar to Mitch Trubisky
– Mitch Trubisky had all the tools, and he would make some ridiculous throws
that would truly wow you. But if you look closer, you’d note that these wow
throws could have been really easy routine throws if he had made them a
half-second earlier. And in the NFL, that has killed him. Of course, that
doesn’t mean it will end up Killing Fields, but it is something to be concerned
about and is something that can sink him by itself. There are also plays where
Fields ends up taking sacks because despite all of his athleticism, he doesn’t
try to avoid them until it’s too late. There was a play against Clemson where
he blindly spun right into a huge hit in the middle of the field on a run. Yeah
it drew a targeting call, but it was a bad call and Fields should have never
put himself in that position. There is something there, IMO. Here’s a
particular example from that game that I noticed:
If he notices the entire right side of the defense blitzing
at the snap, he should know that he’s got to hit that tight end on the corner
route downfield and he’s got to throw it quick. Instead, by the time he looks
like he’s about to make that throw, it’s too late.
While he does indeed make progressions, he does stare down
his first read and throw to him a lot. Not as much as Lawrence, and he got a
lot better at this in 2020, but it is a thing in a lot of these college
offenses. It’s just that we’re only talking about it with Fields for some
reason – even though there’s a play in that playoff game where Lawrence stares
a hole through his first read, the rush gets home and he panics and skies a
ball 5 yards over a wide open tight ends head. We’re only talking about
“there’s no good OSU QBs! Look at Dwayne Haskins!” with Fields for some reason,
even though Herbert was drafted in spite of Akili Smith, Joey Harrington,
Marcus Mariota and Dennis Dixon, and the last good Alabama QB in the NFL just
died of old age. Last point I’d make is that Fields has occasional lapses in
decisions and accuracy, and when he does they come in bunches. He’s very Ben
Roethlisberger in that regard.
He does also have a weird throwing motion, which is kind of
long, and he seems to have an inconsistent spiral – some plays the ball just
kind of flutters and I don’t know if it has anything to do with that windup, ie
if he can’t wind the ball up and throw it then it just doesn’t come out right.
But the throwing motion stuff is a really minimal concern, IMO.
Now, the good? This is a guy with first overall pick
abilities. His arm is really good, he’s typically very accurate to all levels,
he’s a great athlete who runs like a running back, and he’s not rattled by
pressure. I think he’s close to Lawrence when you look at pure “tools”. He will
wing it 65 yards downfield and hit his WR in stride. Anyone who directly
compares his game to Dwayne Haskins is making that comparison for a very
particular reason (and really, what’s one thing that most “OSU QBs!” have had
in common recently?). When you give up so much to trade up to the 3rd
spot for a QB, you probably aren’t doing it for a Mac Jones. People say “Kyle
Shanahan likes this type, he can do it with anyone!” – well, why trade up for
Mac Jones then? The more I think about Trey Lance – why trade up for a complete
project? IMO, you trade up because there’s a guy with elite elite QB tools
available who can start playing right away and you’d like to have that guy
running your system. Maybe you believe you system can mitigate some of the
flaws and showcase the tools, and you look at Justin Herbert and Josh Allen as
evidence of that. (For the record, I think Fields’ flaw is worse but given that
he has shown improvement in this regard, I don’t think it’s something that
can’t be improved to the point that it doesn’t ruin him).
Finally, the Dan Orlovsky stuff (work ethic comments, not
the throwing motion stuff which IMO is a valid concern). This is not something
that we determine either way, and it DID bury Dwayne Haskins right away. But
let’s remember that Justin Fields basically forced the Big Ten to play this
season by himself, and that would be a weird thing to do for a guy who doesn’t really
want to be a QB or whatever the knock is.
Oh, and one more thing – the Ohio Offense is infinitely more
“Pro Style” than Alabama’s or (particularly) Clemson’s. If you don’t believe
me, just go to Youtube and type in “Trevor Lawrence vs.” and see what you get.
Screen, screen, screen, deep shot. All kinds of fakes after the snap to freeze
defenses. And you know who doesn’t run “Pro Style” offenses? Pro teams! Justin
Herbert was basically running Joe Burrow’s LSU offense last year. Pat Mahomes
isn’t typically coming out of the gate and airing it out – they are throwing a
bunch of short stuff and setting up the deep stuff. So ignore that nonsense.
4. ATLANTA FALCONS – JA’MARR CHASE, WR, LSU
Atlanta is in a real tough spot here. The logical team to
come up into this spot is Carolina, but does Atlanta really want to help
Carolina get a QB? The only reason they would I guess would be if they think
Trey Lance ain’t all that, which I wouldn’t fault them for. But…if that’s
indeed the case, why not facilitate that? I guess you can argue that the risk
that Lance is a great QB outweighs the benefits here, but then what? Take
Ja’Marr Chase or Kyle Pitts? Just take Lance themselves?
NOTE: I started writing this a few weeks ago and wrote the
above before Carolina traded for Jameis Darnold. Carolina is almost certainly
out and perhaps they are out because Atlanta told them no.
Every single QB class people are mocking them into the top 4
or 5 picks (myself included), and yet it never happens. So I’m going to assume
it doesn’t happen here, even though Atlanta has taken Jacksonville’s crown as
the NFL’s most boring team and hired a coach with the league’s most boring
name.
Julio Jones is getting up there in age, and I think Atlanta
may want to take a new Julio Jones. Justin Jefferson was arguably the best
rookie receiver in NFL history last year, and he was the 2nd best WR
on his college team behind Chase. Like Jefferson, people had concerns about
Chase’s actual athleticism before he went out and just destroyed his Pro Day.
So it turns out that both of these LSU WRs were so good that it looked like
they weren’t, or something? Anyway, I’m not a huge proponent of drafting WRs
high anymore, unless of course they are as rare as Chase is. And this dude is
rare.
Now, Atlanta could take a project like Lance and sit him
behind Matt Ryan for a year, but I’m not the biggest Trey Lance fan and I’m
betting that NFL teams also do not want to gamble top 5 picks on a guy who has
played like 10 college games against D2 kids.
5. CINCINNATI BENGALS – PENISES SEWELL, OT, OREGON
Sewell is this year’s Jeff Okudah. Everyone loves him, says
he’s gonna be great, and it’s basically just accepted as fact, yet I just don’t
see it. Like, yeah, he’s good, he has some amazing flashes, he’s still only
going to be 20 years old during his first NFL game – but so often he’s just
kind of stumbling around looking for someone to flail at. And Bengals Twitter
has taken a stand that Sewell is the only option for the continued existence of
the Bengals franchise, as if there is no other offensive lineman that can
possibly block an NFL defender available in this draft. In reality, this is
arguably the strongest OL draft in decades.
However, I have taken Chase off of the board here, so that
is not an option for the striped afterthoughts. Would they take a tight end
this high? Probably not, as *double checks* they are not the Lions. Would they
trade out of this spot? Honestly, they might if say NE or Washington wants to
come up and take a QB, but I’m just going to assume they don’t. And I think
they’ll end up taking Sewell. Because I have a theory – why would the Bengals,
who are notoriously miserly on every single aspect of being an NFL team, why
would they have like a fully built-out and resource-rich scouting staff? I
think the reason that the Bengals always make picks that the NFL draft machine
loves are because they probably put a lot of stock into high-level mock drafts.
Like, I’m not saying they are going to Walterfootball, but I think they look
very hard at pay-to-access drafts and stuff like that and actually give them
weight. And really, it may not be a terrible idea – these people do draft shit
all year, and they are basically doing it for you at a small cost, so why
wouldn’t you take advantage of that? Just a random wild hot take.
6. MIAMI DOLPHINS – KYLE
PITTS, TE, FLORIDA
I assume the Dolphins traded up to 6 to hopefully get
Ja’Marr Chase, but he works for Home Depot now. I also have to assume that they
didn’t trade up with Chase being the only target, and the only other guy here
who fits that bill is Kyle Pitts. They probably should have just stayed at 12
but whatever, Fins Up and all that. Hopefully this doesn’t lead to Mike Gesicki
retiring to pursue a pro volleyball career.
Kyle Pitts is the best tight end prospect in like 100 years.
He’s not the best blocker, but he’s competent at it and gives it effort. But as
a receiver, he looks like an actual wide receiver. This guy runs actual routes, with head fakes
and everything. He runs a 4.4-something and will burn DBs downfield. He catches
everything. Let’s see what he can catch in Miami.
7. DETROIT LIONS – TREY LANCE, QB, NORTH DAKOTA
Whaaaaaaaaat
Well….do you think the Lions want to go long-term with Jared
Goff? I don’t. Last year, I implored the Lions to draft a QB. Unfortunately, in
my example it would have been Tua, but in real life they may have preferred
Herbert. Instead they drafted a corner in the top 3 and what do you know, that
guy sucks so far and corner is still kind of a need. If coach Tonya Harding has
his way with opponent kneecaps and Goff goffs his way to 8-8, who are you going
to draft next year?
Instead of setting into motion yet another half-decade of
mediocrity, why not take a QB with top-flite tools who has is a project anyway
and let him sit and learn some bad habits behind Goff? Hopefully by 2022 he’ll
be jackin’ Goff’s spot and leading the Lions into a new era of Detroit losing
v. Everybody.
As for Lance himself, I’d be leery of this pick. For
starters, while there isn’t much available on him, I think Carson Wentz looked
better at NDSU and Lance has some moments of weirdness. Second, he’s a
tremendous athlete with a live arm who is not really standing out while throwing
against guys who can not even realistically dream about the NFL. And third,
he’s only thrown like 280 passes against said scrubs for a team that hasn’t
lost in like 80 years. There are games where he goes 5 for 13 for 50 yards and
his team wins by 30. You probably can’t option keeper your way to blowout wins
against the Vikings. This is one of those guys where we are regular people just
don’t have that much information on and so I’m kind of trusting the rumors and
the athleticism and the Pro Day reports and all that. By all accounts this is a
fast mf-er with a great arm who will go high so why not Detroit?
8. WHO WANTS MAC JONES??
Anybody? If so you’ll probably have to move into this spot.
NEW ENGLAND TRADES WITH CAROLINA
8. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS – QB MAC JONES, ALABAMA
Alright, I’m choosing to believe the Mac Jones hype to a
degree here. I’m not buying him at #3 until it actually happens, but this one I
believe. I think Belichick might prefer someone like Lance, but I also think
the only person in New England who winces harder than Cam Newton during each
throw is Belichick.
The extreme of Mac Jones hating is kind of obscuring the
fact that Mac Jones does a lot of good things. He DOES run the shit out of that
offense in Alabama, and he does probably look better than Tua doing it. But
honestly – Tua probably hurts him more than he helps him. Looking back at these
previous drafts, we’ve got the guys for whom it was just super easy – guys like
Baker Mayfield, Tua, Mariota, even Joe Burrow at this point – and the guys who
have mostly been the best are the guys who did not play for a stacked offense
throwing screens all game. Your Herberts, Josh Allens, Lamar Jacksons, etc. I
bet the Dolphins look back and say, “you know, maybe instead of drafting the
average athlete with the broken hip who threw to four (!!!) first round WRs, we
should have taken the hyper-toolsy trainwreck from Oregon who was throwing to a
roster full of slot WRs”. And while Mac Jones is generally accurate, goes
through progressions well, and makes good decisions, I have NEVER seen an
easier offense for a QB to operate in. Firstly, Devonta Smith catches literally
every single ball thrown near him, and if you throw him a screen he’ll take it
50 yards for a touchdown every other time. Secondly, his entire offensive line
is made up of top prospects. Thirdly, his RB is another Bama freakshow alien. I
think this year, that works against him.
And while he isn’t a bad athlete, he’s not a good one
either, and he reminds me of Eli Manning. He also falls backwards on every
pressured throw like late stage Eli. Yeah, Eli won two Super Bowls so he’s a
hall of famer, but if he didn’t (and there’s randomness involved in every
career), would you take him in the top 10? I guess so, but I don’t like him as
my high-end comp. But at the same time, Mac Jones is far from bad, so ignore
that noise too.
9. DENVER BRONCOS – JEREMIAH OWUSU-KOROMOAH
So Denver gets screwed and once again does not have a QB,
barring a miracle 3rd year jump from Drew Lock. They have about 10
recent draft picks at receiver, so I’m pretty sure that’s out. They aren’t
gonna take Najee Harris. Maybe they’d take an OL here, but Denver loves their
defense and I’m going to give them my favorite player in this year’s draft.
Now, this is almost certainly not going to happen, because
while JOK does bring more wood than Deshaun Watson, he only weighed 221 lbs and
that’s quite small. Well, for an NFL middle linebacker at least – I mean that
would be huge for like a CVS cashier or something. This is the direction the
NFL has gone in and this guy has a lot of Ryan Shazier in him and he can change
games defensively if he pans out. You don’t see too many guys like that.
In college I remember discussing a hypothetical situation in
which you make an entire team out of one guy. So say our running back’s name
was Ricky Chainmover and our left tackle was Todd Blocktopus. Who would win in
a game between a team made up of 50 Ricky Chainmovers and another with 50 Todd
Blocktopuses? Like, would the difficulty for the Chainmovers to block the
Blocktopuses outweigh the speed advantage? Anyway, I think the team of 50
Owusu-Koramoahs would wreck shop in this draft. He’s that guy.
10. DALLAS COWBOYS – PATRICK SURTAIN II
This one seems to be a foregone conclusion, with Dallas
having the worst defense this side of Tucker Carlson. They have complete scrubs
at cornerback, and using TLC’s Law we can ascertain that this is not an ideal
situation. So, to address it, they will draft Patrick Surtain II, son of former
NFL All-Pro Neil Rackers.
Surtain Two Sticks is a corner in the true lockdown mold,
with all the scoutspeak going for him like great feet and quick twitch and
locates the ball and bathes regularly and all of that stuff. Teams just avoided
him, which is not true of many of the top corners this year. I know Richard
Sherman said that you can’t be a top corner if teams completely avoid you and
you aren’t getting picks, and Surtain does have a glaring lack of those, but
this is the prototype athlete you look for at corner and I think that’s enough
to get him taken off the board first. People who are 6’2” 208 lbs generally do
not move like this.
11. NEW YORK GIANTS – JAELAN PHILLIPS, DE, MIAMI
The Giants could use just about any defensive player,
however their most glaring need is probably the lack of an edge rush.
Gettle-dog loves his defensive linemen, so I think that’s where they go here.
Everyone remembers 2008 when the Giants finished 2nd in their
division and went on a wild playoff run on the strength of their DL, so
obviously that is the time-tested formula for success.
I have them taking a bit of a chance here, because while
Jaelen Phillips is awesome at edging (don’t Google that), a concussion history
forced him to retire prematurely, which is the polar opposite of edging. A
highly touted 5-star recruit at UCLA, he did return following his hiatus and
transferred to Miami, where he showed many flashes of brilliance. While he does
seem to be inconsistent and goes stretches of doing nothing, this guy tested as
a truly elite athlete and he looks like an All-Pro DE and he has all the tools
and if it weren’t for the concussion issues he’d be considered an easy lock as
the top pass rusher in this draft. If Gettleman has any of that lotion left,
this is probably where he used it.
12. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES – DEVONTA SMITH, WR, ALABAMA
Man, remember back yonder when the Eagles were good? Back
when life was simple and a gallon of gas only cost like half a bitcoin. Those
were the days.
Anyway, since the time ages ago when this roster was good
enough to win a Super Bowl with a career backup QB, a combination of injuries
and general shitty management has resulted in its emaciation into a collection
of Greg Wards and Travis Fulghams. And right on cue, speaking of emaciated, the
Eagles once again go WR in the first with Devonta Smith.
Smith is basically Megatron with AIDS. He’s like 6’1” 160 pounds yet he’s jumping
over everyone and catching balls with a few fingers. This dude’s catch radius
is crazy.
He didn’t weigh in or test athletically so you’re only going
off the tapes but he’s an absolute monster in them. I realize Waddle was hurt,
but Alabama WRs don’t dominate like this. He had like 45% of their receiving
production. Even last year when Jeudy and Ruggs were top pick locks, Smith was
the guy who led Bama in yards and TDs. He’ll go downfield and catch the ball
over your head or take a screen and just slither through an entire defense.
This guy may be the most outliery outlier to ever exist. He looks like Todd
Pinkston on a hunger strike.
So maybe you think, “ehh, this is the NFL, teams will just
press the shit out of him”. Well, he’s incredible against the press. You can’t
get a hand on him. You can’t say that about Henry Ruggs. He might break? Well,
he didn’t in college in the SEC and I don’t really know that there’s any link
between size and injuries. Megatron himself weighed like 4 tons and he was just
battered with injuries by the end of his career because DBs got so many square
shots on him. That may not be the case with Smith. So while the risks are
obvious and will probably keep him out of the top 10, at this point I’m pulling
the trigger. If this guy were 6’2” 210 he’d probably go before Chase. His tape
is that good. He’s incredible. Shit, even last year while watching Tua I was
like “who the hell is this random #6 guy that catches everything?” – well, this
is that guy. Eagles fans probably won’t even be able to hit him with batteries.
13. LOS ANGELES AFTERTHOUGHTS – RASHAWN SLATER, OT,
NORTHWESTERN
Chargers got themselves a shiny new Herbert and obviously
you gotta protect your valuables. This also happens to be a great draft for OTs
and my favorite of all of them is still available at 13.
Slater is very good technically, he absolutely shut Chase
Young down when Northwestern played Ohio State in 2019, he moves really well,
he tested incredibly, and he’s got great quickness to mirror speed rushers.
He’s plenty strong and moves defenders. Penei Sewell gets most of the hype but
to me a few of these other guys test better than Sewell and have better tape.
Slater to me is the best of that group – he’s so consistent and that to me is
extremely important for an offensive lineman.
TRADE YALLS
CHICAGO TRADES WITH MINNESOTA FOR THE 14th
SELECTION, I DON’T KNOW HERE VIKES TAKE LIKE A 2ND NEXT YEAR
14. CHICAGO BEARS SELECT JAYCEE HORN, CB, SOUTH CURRALINA
I don’t love the way the board lines up for Minnesota here,
so I’m gonna trade them out of it to a team that I could see jumping up for
Jaycee Horn. To trade you need a target, and Jaycee Horn is rare enough to be
that target. Now, do I think he’s worth this move? No. I have him as my 4th
corner, and that’s only because of his Pro Day testing. Before that I had him
even further down the list. But you can’t ignore those results, and this guy
tested as the single best athlete at the corner position since the late ‘80s.
That’s insane, given that NFL corners are some of the best athletes on the
planet. These are the guys that get cool nicknames, like Prime Time and Revis
Island and like Swaggasaurus and all that shit. And Jaycee Horn is arguably the
best pure athlete among all of them, and he does it at 6’1” 205 lbs.
The reason I don’t love Horn is that he doesn’t really have
any refined technique and he does have a tendency to get lost and lose his man
when plays are extended. Not sure if he’s baiting throws or what but he has way
too much Artie Burns in him for my liking. But man, the flashes of brilliance
are flashing in blindlingly bright neon and the ability is clearly there that I
can understand a team believing that these are flaws that can be worked on as
he is developed.
Horn – and yes, he is the son of former NFL receiver Brian Finneran – has the
raw ability evident that I wouldn’t argue with this. He doesn’t create a ton of
interceptions but he does show ball skills often enough that you know they are
somewhere in there. He makes enough plays on the ball that you know he can do
it. He’s faced a gauntlet of top college WR talent in his college career. He
basically won USC’s game against Auburn by himself. But man is he targeted a
lot for a top corner. I know he’s on the other team’s top WR but to me it
suggests that teams don’t really fear anything bad happening when they throw at
him, and most of the time a particularly bad thing did not happen. But tools
are tools and Jaycee Horn is Tim fuckin’ Taylor.
15. CAROLINA PANTHERS – SAM COSMI, OT, TEXAS
The Panthers can afford to trade down because of the glut of
top tackles available and here’s one of them. I like Darrisaw more but Darrisaw
didn’t test at his Pro Day and Cosmi has a top 3 all-time athletic profile at
the position. With a top pick like this, if it’s close I’m probably taking the
guy who showed that he has the athletic times that most NFL All-Pros possess.
And while he is kinda raw, the athleticism absolutely screams out on his tapes.
He has very rare movement for a left tackle.
The bad? Well, his technique needs some work, he often looks
a bit out of control and could probably reel it back a little. He does get a
bit grabby at times, often because he misses his initial punch and has to hold
the rusher that just beat him. But these can be worked on and they aren’t all
that common anyway. I think Cosmi is one of those guys that goes higher than
people expect.
16. ARIZONA CARDINALS – IFEATU MELIFONWU, CB, SYRACUSE
This won’t happen. Don’t get me wrong, Arizona is almost
certain to draft a corner, and that’s why I had the Bears jump them to move up
for Horn. It just won’t be Melifonwu. But I think it should be.
There are two corners that I have much higher than any of
the draftniks, and they are Melifonwu and Adebo. I may have ranked Adebo a bit
higher but I really like Melifonwu in particular. He is the brother of uhhh
that other Melifonwu guy, who I did really like at the time but who did not pan
out in the NFL as a safety. However, I noted then that Obi Melifonwu (just
remembered his name) may have been 6’4” 230 but he just did not play like it.
He was a decent tackler but wasn’t all that physical and didn’t bring the pain
that you’d think he would. This guy, though? This guy is a destroyer. He’s 6’2”
210 and plays like it. He has quick feet, good technique and is really good at
getting into a WR’s kitchen and knocking passes away. He is smart, attacks
screens aggressively and doesn’t really bit on double-moves. He’s a monster.
The bad? Well, his agility times were not great and he seems
more of a chase and breakup corner rather than a guy who’s going to get a ton
of picks. But the raw ability is there in spades and I would take him in the
first round even though everywhere I look he’s rated as a 3rd
rounder. He might actually be even
better as a safety, to be honest.
17. VEGAS RAIDERS – MICAH PARSONS, LB, PENN STATE
Parsons in reality will probably go to Denver at pick 9 if
this all plays out the way I have it, but in my reality he’s perfect for the
Raiders. He’s got the crazy elite athleticism and the trademark Raider
character concerns to go with it. Al Davis is probably already possessing his
body as we speak.
Parsons not only timed at an elite level, he plays like it
too. He’s got NFL size, incredible speed to match up with RBs and TEs in
coverage and he has a pretty good feel for it, he sorts through the trash really
well, and he typically makes good reads before he commits. In addition, he has
enough edge rushing experience to provide value there. My comparison for
Parsons was Bobby Wagner and I just see a great athlete who does almost
everything well.
18. MIAMI DOLPHINS – KWITY PAYE, EDGE,
MICHIGAN
Now everyone has Miami desperately needing a WR but I don’t
think they take one here. For starters, teams are drafting too many WRs early
and it seems that more than any other position, value is coming later in the
draft. In addition, this is a Belichickian outfit now, and that makes me think
they lean defense over fancy offensive skill guys. And they need an edge
rusher, which we just happen to have available here.
When you ready about Kwity Paye, the first thing you notice
is “guhhh, fuckin’ Michigan”. The second thing you read though suggests that
he’s kind of a project, a pure athletic projection. I don’t see that at all,
though. Is he raw? Yeah. Does he seem to lack a plan? Often times, yes. But so
do most of these college edge rushers. I’m not going to pass on a guy because
he needs to work on his planning, he’s a defensive end not an architect. We’ll
plan for him. He is a bit light and can get handled by OTs at times, but again
so do a lot of guys. Most concerning to me is his good but not great snap
jumps, which for an athlete of this caliber you’d expect to be better, and his
good but not great flexibility, which could result in him running around the
arc in the NFL more than you’d like. But that’s an inherent risk with most of
these guys. You draft the athleticism and the skill, and Paye has both of them.
He can shed blockers and knock away their punches. He finds the QB and
finishes. He IS an elite athlete. He just looks like a guy who’s going to be a
good NFL pass rusher, so take him and hope for the best. Jayson Oweh is the guy
who is a complete athletic projection, not Paye.
19. WASHINGTON TAN GENTLEMEN – ZAVEN COLLINS, LB, TULSA
One of my favorites this year. Collins won the Bronco Nagurski
Award as college football’s sexiest defender last season and it’s because he’s
just making huge plays every week.
This is a guy who reads plays extremely well off the snap,
who is always around the ball and managed 4 picks last season, and who timed out as an elite athlete. That’s
important since this was a concern for him before his Pro Day. Now, there are
concerns which are keeping him from going much higher. One is that he isn’t the
best getting off of blocks. He’s not terrible but you’d expect a lot better.
And secondly, he’s a really big linebacker (6’2” and like 260 lbs) but he
doesn’t really play like it. Now, I don’t ascribe bigness to shedding blockers,
as I believe the best way to avoid blocks is to do just that, avoid them. NFL
OL are like 320 pound murdering oxen, and that’s going to be tough for any LB
to just toss aside when they take them head-on. But he doesn’t really hit
anyone as hard as you’d think. I compare him to Ray Lewis but that is one area
where the comparison doesn’t hold up. Ray Lewis was driven by murder both off
and on the field. Collins doesn’t play like that. But he does so many good
things that I’d consider him well worth the risk that he isn’t murdery enough
to tackle Miles Sanders.
20. MINNESOTA VIKINGS – CREED HUMPHREY, C, OKLAHOMA
Congrats to the new man on the Minnesota Vikings.
Creed Humphrey is another player who I hold in much higher
esteem than The Machine does. I typically read that he’s, you know, smart and
gritty obviously, but athletically limited and he’s probably a 2nd
rounder. I watched him and thought, this guy is amazing. This is the best
center prospect I’ve ever seen. He’s blowing people off the ball and shit, why
is he not ranked higher? Is it because NFL teams don’t really value centers,
even though lines with bad ones typically crumble into bits? I don’t know.
Then he went out and tested as the single most athletic
center prospect of the last 30 years. So why is he still a first round
afterthought?
Well, one I guess is that athleticism is not really a huge
deal for centers. In that regard the position has more in common with QBs and
safeties than it does with the other positions. Other than that, though, I
think people are just wrong. Sure, athleticism alone doesn’t matter for
centers. Probably because there’s so much more to the position, both mentally
and also I would imagine skill-wise as snapping the ball before blocking is
probably really difficult. But Humphrey has shown he can do all of that. So he has
the elite, elite athleticism on top of it. He’s one of the handful of guys I’d
prefer for the Steelers pick.
21. INDIANAPOLIS BABY HORSES - TEVEN JENKINS, OT, OKLAHOMA
STATE
That dude is one of the meanest mf-ers in this draft. Brian
Burlsworth lives on! This fit is perfect for him too. Put him next to Karate
Bear and they would just maul people.
When I first watched him I thought, “whoa, this guy is a
literal truck and should be arrested for vehicular homicide”. However, like a
truck, he wasn’t really all that great in space. I believe I compared him to a
drunk moose. He was strong as shit and would just move the shit out of people
while the rest of the DL is busy collapsing his teammates, but once he got into
space he just looked a bit oafish. It was very Ronnie Stanley-esque, but hey,
he certainly worked out for Baltimore.
But then he had his Pro Day, and it turns out he’s an elite
athlete as well. Now, with all of these elite athletes this year, you have to
assume that maybe something is up with the Pro Day times. However, I can’t
really determine that so I have to go off of what we have and assume it’s
trustworthy.
But for a murderball that tests through the roof? I have to
believe that he’s going to be just fine.
22. TENNESSEE TITANS – AZIZ OJULARI, EDGE/OLB, GEORGIA
Jadeveon Clowney wasn’t it, so the Titans still need to work
on their edging. Fortunately for hypothetical them, Aziz Ojulari is sitting
right there. RIGHT THERE!
I for some insane reason watched Rodney Hudson (a 12th round
offensive tackle prospect) before I watched Ojulari, and because of that I
didn’t expect to like Ojulari. Rodney Hudson plays tackle like Cincinnati just
randomly put him there, which….they did. He was a converted defensive lineman.
But, Hudson was handling Ojulari in that game until he got ejected for just a
mind-numbingly dumb late hit that I had to screencap.
DOG WHAT ARE YOU DOING. Anyway after that Ojulari took over
and flipped that game and scrappy upstart Georgia ended up coming back and
beating longtime powerhouse University of Got-damn Cincinnati. I don’t really
want a pass rusher that only gets home against backup MAC tackles.
But then I watched Ojulari, and he’s actually quite a good
prospect. Maybe he’s a bit underwhelming as a top edge prospect, but in the
20s? I would be happy with that as a team like Tennessee, for whom he would
probably be a really good fit. Ojulari is a throwback to like 7 years ago when
we had actual 3-4 OLBs. He’s kind of a jack of all trades, and I think he can
jack well enough in them to be a quality player at the NFL level. He has
good-not-great timed athleticism, good burst, pretty good in run defense, good
bend, good hands and rush moves, etc etc. He managed just under 10 sacks last
season despite playing a TON of coverage. Like 2,000 pounds of it. I think he’s
a pretty high IQ player with a good motor who does get pushed around a bit and
may not be good enough to be a consistent double-digit sack guy in the NFL but
I’d be confident in taking that chance and I think he’ll be solid with a chance
at being a Pro Bowl caliber player. Plus he’s one of the young guys this year,
he’ll be 20 when he’s drafted and that does matter when projecting.
23. NEW YORK JETS – ASANTE SAMUEL JR, CB, FLORIDA STATE
The Planes needs a corner, and what do you know, Jason
Sehorn’s son is sitting there waiting to be picked. Let’s do that. (In reality,
this is probably going to be someone like Caleb Farley, but I’m not putting
Farley in the first and I’m probably not putting Adebo up here either even
though I like him a lot).
Asante Samuel Jr. probably looks the most like what people
think a corner looks like, if that makes sense.
He’s smallish, doesn’t really tackle, but moves around really quick,
changes direction and breaks well on the ball and all that. He’s like a corner
from 2007 before they all the sudden became like 6’3” and shit.
His low RAS number is largely due to size deficiencies; he
appears to have NFL athleticism. I’m also betting on the bloodlines here.
24. PITTSBURGH STEELERS – ERIC STOKES, CB, GEORGIA
Ok, call this one a hunch. In reality if this situation
presented itself it would be hard not to take Christian Darrisaw here, but also
in reality Darrisaw will probably be long gone. I just have a feeling that Eric
Stokes is the kind of player the Steelers would go for.
I haven’t seen this mocked anywhere but the Steelers were at
Stokes’ Pro Day, he’s a great athlete, he played in the SEC, and he entered the
draft after his junior season. Those are four things you generally see from
Steelers first rounders – Tomlin et al at the Pro Day, elite athleticism, big
conference player who came out early (with some obvious exceptions in some
categories, like Jarvis Jones and a falling David DeCastro that they didn’t
even think would be available). Plus, there are so many offensive linemen in
this draft that I think you can wait on one. This draft is also full of corners
with elite athleticism, but they will almost certainly all be long gone by the
middle of the 2nd round or so. Stokes is a sub 4.3 guy, he’s ludicrously
fast.
The Steelers play that weird Seahawks zone on defense that
leads to all kinds of busted coverages when you don’t have a football genius
like Dick Sherman running the show, but Stokes is perfect for that scheme. He’s
big, he’s comfortable in man and zone, he has good ball skills and gets his
head around deep passes (something the Steelers haven’t had in like 20 years),
and he’s always around the ball. This draft is full of guys who have all the
coverage tools but somehow only managed like 1 or 2 career interceptions.
Stokes had four last season, and it was mostly just because he put himself in
the right position to make the plays.
One, he can be pretty grabby – he’s got that Darqueze
Dennard in him. Two, he tends to get beat at the line and compensate by using
that make-up speed, which worked for William Jackson III but isn’t something
you can confidently depend on when drafting a guy. He also seems to get
contorted at times and can’t get in position quickly enough to recover. Weirdly
it’s as if he’s baiting a throw but uhhhh, gives too much bait? I don’t know.
Also he’s not much of a tackler but that’s not a deal breaker for me. Might it
be for the Steelers and a lot of other teams? Probably not, he’s not thaaaat
bad, but it is a thing.
So while Jaycee Horn and Stokes are both big, super-athletic
corners, Horn faced a murderers row of WRs and mostly shut them down while in
Stokes’ case, while he did also play great competition, he struggled quite a
bit with Devonta Smith. I initially saw that his agility metrics were average
though it seems like they are no longer listed, perhaps they weren’t official
or were a mistake? I’m not sure but I’m leaving it in as it may help explain
some of the strugs. This is a top-10 caliber athlete being pushed into the 20s
by some significant flaws but not flaws that I don’t think can potentially be
improved upon as he develops and like grows body hair and his voice deepens and
stuff.
25. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS – CHRISTIAN DARRISAW, OT, VIRGINIA
TECH
It would be malpractice to continue to drop Darrisaw, and
the Jags need a tackle, so here.
Darrisaw is a monster who improved throughout his college
career, appears to be a really good athlete, and is a massive beast who will
push defenders into the outer reaches of the solar system. He’s another guy
where you see the defense collapsing the pocket and then there’s one guy still
at the LOS handling his man with ease, much like Mia Khalifa. He also has the
ability to get to the 2nd level and create the blocks that turn 10
yard runs into 60 yard TDs. (#77 in the vid below).
OL running downfield dominating is one of my favorite things
to watch and Darrisaw is really good at it. For comparison, here’s Rodney
Hudson. Why do I have two gifs of a 7th round project tackle?
Whatever. (Again, you can tell which position I watched first).
I love Darrisaw, he’s going to be long gone by here in all
likelihood and I doubt the Steelers would pass him up if he weren’t gone by
now, but this is my world and you’re all just living in it so deal with it. I
have Darrisaw as a top 10 talent, the only real flaws being that he sometimes
can get off balance with the initial punch and that even though he appears to
be a great athlete, he didn’t record any Pro Day times and so you’re just kind
of hoping that he’s as quick as he looks. Now – would that push him out of the first?
I doubt it. I mean, the game isn’t played in shorts, so who cares about 40
times, right??? Well, when we’re talking about a top 10, top 15 pick – that
stuff DOES matter. Most All-Pro OTs are elite level athletes. When you’re
betting on one of them that high in the draft, you probably want to have proof
that he checks that box IF there are other comparable players that have put up
elite times. Would this hurt Darrisaw in a normal year where there aren’t 9 top
tackles? Probably not much. Will it this year? I think it will and he’ll go a
bit later than most people think. Remember, Jachai Polite looked fast as shit
too.
TRADE ALERT WOO WOO WOO WOO
MIAMI TRADES WITH THE MISTAKE BY THE LAKE FOR THE 26th
SELECTION FOR SOME OF THE 100 PICKS THEY HAVE
26. MIAMI DOLPHINS – NAJEE HARRIS, RB, ALABAMA
My mock
not-real-life-so-who-gives-a-shit-why-are-we-even-here board does not really
line up with Cleveland’s needs, so instead of forcing a pick I’m gonna trade
them out of it. Yeah, Jaylen Waddle is still there, but I’m leaving him out on
purpose and in real life he might go in the top 10 so who cares.
One feasible move would have Miami trade up to take Najee
Harris, whom I consider the only RB this year worth a first rounder. People say
“don’t draft RBs in the first round!” but…why not? Maybe not in the top 15 or
20 or whatever, but in the 20s? I say go for it. Like an adult, I have reasons
for this opinion. First, most players taken in the 20s aren’t very good. Pick a
year at random and look at picks 20-32. Let’s say….2016. Those players combined
to make ONE Pro Bowl. Maybe a third were above average players. Six were
absolute certified busts. How about 2004? Three of those guys became Pro
Bowlers, and one of those players was an RB. (Shout-out to Rashaun Woods, one
of the worst first rounders of all-time). You’re passing on a guy who is the
clear top RB prospect to take JP Losman? (BTW, this year’s Losman is named
Davis Mills and yes, his name sounds like a flour refinery).
Second, the problem with RBs is often that they aren’t worth paying. Well, ok,
take one here and pay him like a million a year for four years WITH a 5th
year option. Now, to be clear, I only want to do this for guys like Najee Harris
who are just built different. I don’t want Travis ETN in the first, or Kenneth
Gainwell or Rashaad Penny or some rando scrub who looks like 30 other running
backs. Najee Harris is an explosive runner who is built like Derrick Henry’s
younger brother who can run away from people, jump over them, and function as a
true receiving option. He doesn’t come without flaws – he is another behemoth
runner who would rather dance, he was running behind an NFL OL, and he blocks
as if his religion forbids him from doing so. He also did not test at his Pro
Day so we don’t know exactly how athletic he is, but I’m ok taking a chance on
the size/speed combo here.
27. BALTIMORE RAVENS – TERRACE MARSHALL JR., WR, LSU
Baltimore once again makes a surprising WR pick in the
first, this time for Terrace “Not a Typo” Marshall. Much like Alabama and their
RBs, LSU apparently has a WR lab somewhere on their campus that just keeps
putting out freakshow receivers. With Justin Jefferson gone and Ja’Marr Chase
opting out, Marshall got his chance to shine and shine he….well maybe he didn’t
“shine” per se but he played well and he was productive. But the play isn’t why
he is going in this spot – it’s the play plus the athleticism, and Marshall is
an absolute prototype. He’s also kind of “jack of all trades” and there appears
to be something missing there but a) I can’t quite put my finger on it and b)
all LSU WRs look like jack of all trades types until they do their Pro Days and
blow up in the NFL. I wouldn’t love this pick if I were a Ravens fan however
they have to do something about their stable of Kenny Stillses and get a guy
who looks like an actual NFL wide receiver. This pick is also in large part due
to underwhelming options elsewhere.
28. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS – ELIJAH MOORE, WR, OLE MISS
I don’t want to go WR here but there’s really nothing I like
here outside of WR. The Saints could use a corner however I mean they aren’t
taking Paulson Adebo and I am keeping Caleb Farley out of the first round if I
can help it.
Second biggest need is probably WR and while I’m really
souring on taking WRs in the first when outside of the elite elite freakshows
you can just as easily get them in the 2nd and 3rd
rounds, Elijah Moore is really good and I’d rather mock him here than try to
jam a shitty edge rusher into this hole. You know the difference between jam
and jelly? I can’t jelly a shitty edge rusher into this hole! ROFL
Alright so Elijah Moore may also be a mythical sprite just
like what seems like half of the WRs entering recent drafts, but he was hella
productive, has great tape and timed really, really well. I didn’t think he was
blazing fast but a 4.35 40 suggests he kinda is. I mean this is basically
Brandon Cooks so why not run that back?
29. GREEN BAY
PACKERS – SPENCER BROWN, OT, NORTHERN IOWA
Who?
Wtf are you doing Horse?
Alright, alright. So Green Bay needs a receiver. Rashod
Bateman, whom I compare to Davonte Adams, is sitting RIGHT THERE begging
(metaphorically) to be picked. But what fun is that? Green Bay hasn’t picked a
1st round receiver since Javon Walker, so why start now? Instead
let’s piss Aaron Rodgers off by drafting a guy he’s never heard of to protect
him.
Now, Spencer Brown tested out as the best athlete to enter
the draft at offensive tackle since at least 1987. He’s an insane athlete and
he moves like it when you go to the Midwestern Small Conference Football
channel and watch him. Now he seems like he’s going to need some actual
coaching, and you’d want to see more dominance against future letter carriers
and Winn-Dixie deli managers, but you can’t teach a 6’7” 315 lb human to move
like this and for that reason he’s probably going to be one of those “wtf” guys
that go really high and leave people scratching their heads. I’m putting him a
little higher than most here but this isn’t real so I can put him first overall
and it doesn’t change anything so get off my gens man. Plus he’s used to
playing in the middle of nowhere so this is perfect.
30. BUFFALO WILLIAMS
– RASHOD BATEMAN, WR, MINNESOTA
Another arctic team, so I’ll give them another arctic
player.
Rashod Bateman IMO is actually perfect for the Chiefs, but
since they traded out of their spot I’m not going to save him for the purpose
of art. Instead, he can go to Buffalo, because Josh Allen has shown that if you
put him in a good situation he can be an MVP-level QB, so hey let’s keep him in
that good situation and give him a top WR prospect. This is basically a 2nd
rounder anyway so don’t overthink it, Bills.
Bateman isn’t quite at Davonte Adams level with his routes
and body control, but he’s the same type of WR and he tested as an elite
athlete so I’m pretty confident he’ll be able to translate this to the NFL. It
seems like he could be an elite WR but for whatever reason isn’t – then again I
watched like a game and a half so what do I really know? Spoiler alert – not
much.
31. BALTIMORE RAVENS – JALEN MAYFIELD, OT, MICHIGAN
Ok, so I had Jalen Mayfield as a first rounder, then he
tested poorly and I dropped him out. But this year’s class seems a bit weaker
than I expected at the back end of the first, and I don’t want to put Liam
Eichenberg in here (even though he may actually go in the first and Mayfield
probably won’t) so Mayfield is back.
Now, Mayfield didn’t have a ton of tape, as Michigan played
like, one game this year or something? So the improvement he showed this year
doesn’t have much to back it up, but man he looked like a fuckin’ ox in that
game. I believe I called him an “absolute house of a tackle”. He is a
structure, and the team that drafts him may need to obtain some permits from
the city. (He’s the right tackle below).
But – I had some concerns about his lateral movement ability
and then he went out and tested like an NFL backup. While most great tackles
have elite athleticism, we’re at pick 31 and you aren’t talking about a top 10
pick here. Plus, if you could only pick one, you’d obviously prefer great tape
to great timed metrics – there are all kinds of elite athletes who you never
hear of every year because they aren’t good and they get drafted in like the 6th
round. And I mean Baltimore is replacing a guy in Orlando Brown who only
dropped to them a few years prior due to his own poor testing, so I don’t think
this would be a problem for them here if they like Mayfield.
32. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS – JAYLEN WADDLE, WR, ALABAMA
Fine. Waddle can go in the first, because apparently Tampa
needs a WR kinda.
Waddle is ranked very highly this year and in fact some
sites have him as their number 1 WR prospect. For real. He’s almost universally
top 10 or top 15 overall rank. Now, I don’t hate Waddle at all. I think he’s
fine. But I don’t get this top prospect thing with him.
Alright, he’s fast. Well, so are like 10 other guys this
year and he didn’t run anything at his Pro Day to solidify him as like a 4.2
guy so why does that put him at the top? He doesn’t really run routes all that
well. Devonta Smith is a stringbean sure but Waddle ain’t all that much bigger,
and unlike Smith he doesn’t really give you anything in traffic. Yeah he’s a
surprisingly tenacious blocker for his size but I don’t draft receivers high
due to their blocking abilities.
Maybe I’m missing something and Waddle is a version of Tyreek Hill that
respects pregnant women, but I’m going to have to see it for myself before I’m
buying him as a top 10 player this year.
ALRIGHT! Finally done with that. Here’s some other guys I
watched but didn’t mock in the first:
QBs:
Kellen Mond – I think he’s a borderline back-end of round
1/early round 2 guy, not that far behind Mac Jones from a talent standpoint.
Very patient under pressure but perhaps too patient and I don’t like that he
throws receivers into guillotines but he’s got a good amount of talent to work
with if you can’t get a top QB this year.
Kyle Trask – Another guy with great pocket presence and calm
who generally throws to where he should be throwing. However, he’s slow as fuck
and misses a lot - yeah he led the NCAA
in TDs but so have a lot of guys who weren’t NFL QBs and he had Kyle Pitts and
a bunch of other good receivers jumping over guys to catch his off-target
throws. I see a lot of Mason Rudolph, whom yes I liked but I’ve learned my
lesson and I liked Rudolph more than Trask.
Davis Mills – If Davis God Damn Mills goes in the first
round I will retire from mock drafting.
RBs:
Javonte Williams – I like him a lot and think he should be
the 2nd RB off the board.
Kenneth Gainwell – Best RB name of all-time, he did a lot of
good things at Memphis even though he was playing WR half the time because this
is the college that decided to hide Antonio Gibson, but his athleticism is
concerning when projecting him to be as explosive in the NFL. But bad testing
or not he can cut on a dime.
Travis Etienne – expected to be so much more impressed than
I was. He goes down on contact and I expected more juice. I do not want in the
first round.
Chris Evans – This is a complete projection because he’s had
suspensions and didn’t play much last year when eligible but he’s got a lot of
Lev Bell in him. I’d take a chance in the late rounds.
Elijah Mitchell – Hugely productive, elite athletically, but
just does not look like it. He reminds me of Donnell Pumphrey, who set the
all-time (I believe) NCAA rushing record at San Diego State in perhaps the
least impressive way you can possibly set an all-time rushing record.
Jake Funk – Not sure why I watched this guy but he’s fast as
shit. If only he could cut and didn’t tear both ACLs in college.
WRs:
Stop drafting good-not-great WRs high. I hated even putting
as many as I did in the back half of the first.
Nico Collins – Another of Shea Patterson’s victims. Shea
Patterson has stolen so much money from Nico Collins and Donovan Peeps-Jones
that he should probably be arrested for some sort of financial crimes. Nico
Collins is a prototype who has never seen an accurate pass in his life.
Kararius Toney – I love this guy’s routes – he’s creative
and shifty as all hell. Reminds me of Stefon Diggs in that regard. However, he
didn’t breakout until his senior season, and he may just be a bit of a gimmick
player who needs the ball schemed to him. Reminds me of Percy Harvin in that
regard.
Chatarius Atwell – True burner, but he may just be a
straight-line type receiver and that’s quite a risky pick high in the draft.
Rondale Moore – Hardest player for me to slot. Has some tape
from his freshman year where he looks like a top 10 pick. He torched Ohio
State’s defense to the ground as an 18 year old. However, he hurt himself in
his sophomore year and didn’t look all the same to me last year. But there’s
more – he tested like he IS all the way back at his Pro Day, so which is it? If
he’s back he’s like Saquon Barkley playing WR.
Johnathan Adams Jr. – I
like Adams a lot more than my ranking indicates. He’s a small school guy so
he’s rather raw and he’s not as elite athletically as playing against small
school guys made him look, but there’s something to work with there and he’s
feisty as hell. You just hope he can get separation in the NFL, otherwise
you’re just drafting off-brand N’Keal Harry.
Sage Surratt – Here’s a guy I watched for some reason.
Marlon Williams – Didn’t update my chart – he should be be
ranked as a Rd 7-UFDA. This guy is basically Jerome Bettis at WR and I wanted
to like him a lot but I was afraid of the speed and his testing proved that to
be a valid concern. He has the athleticism of a Division 3 receiver.
Whop Philyor – I watched him because his name is Whop Philyor. And he actually
looked pretty good! But then he did his Pro Day and his numbers were atrocious,
particularly because he’s a small WR. He won’t be drafted.
TEs:
Pat Friermuth – Pretty good blocker, decent long speed (Penn
State would split him out and throw him verts much like Notre Dame used to do
with Tyler Eifert), and he’ll make touch catches and drag DBs along the ground.
But the “Baby Gronk” stuff is silly, and I don’t agree with the hype he’s been
getting as a potential 1st rounder. He’s not THAT great at contested
catches, he’s not THAT great as a blocker, and he’s usually covered pretty
easily. Plus, the good NFL tight ends more than any other position are truly
elite athletes and Friermuth didn’t put up any Pro Day times so I wouldn’t risk
a high pick on him.
Tommy Tremble – Love this guy as a 3rd or 4th
rounder, he’s a blocking machine and super athletic. Even though he wasn’t very
productive in college, the canvas is there if you think you can turn him into a
homeless man’s George Kittle.
Hunter Long – All-around decent tight end, however his timed
metrics suggest he’s better athletically than I thought and he may end up as
the 2nd TE off the board.
IOL:
Landon Dickerson – I like Landon Dickerson but I don’t love
him like a lot of people seem to. He’s generally ranked above Humphrey but I
don’t see that at all.
Alijah Vera-Tucker – Another USC lineman whose ranking I
just don’t get, this year’s Austin Jackson. Yeah he’s fine but first round?
Wyatt Davis – Projected as a 2nd rounder, plays
like a borderline UDFA. Do not understand.
Deonte Brown – I didn’t love Deonte Brown but didn’t hate
him, but then he did his Pro Day and showed the speed and agility of a cruise
ship. He’s out.
OTs:
Liam Eichenberg – He’s ok but I think he’s just a guy,
though he did test really well.
Dillon Radunz – Has elite athleticism but I want to be blown
away by a Division 2 OT and I was not.
Jackson Carman – Jackson Carman moves like a Mega Man
villain named Car Man. It’s like he’s just doing a three-point turn at the LOS.
He’s ranked as a 2nd or 3rd rounder and I don’t see that
at all.
James Hudson – You can’t be a raw athletic projection who
puts up below average athletic metrics.
Alex Leatherwood – This guy is considered a borderline first
rounder? THIS GUY??? And he tested as a super-elite athlete? I do not see it at
all. Not even a little bit. I probably need to watch more of him but I’m not
gonna do it.
DEFENSE
IDL:
Terrible year for defensive tackles.
Daviyon Nixon – The closest thing to a first round DT that I
see this year. He’s a great (but not elite) athlete, he’s powerful, he’s quick
off the snap and has some rush ability. But he didn’t seem like he did any of
it at the level you want from a top pick.
Milton Williams – On some plays he looks like a top 20 pick,
others he looks like a bottom 20 pick. So somewhere in the middle? He’s a truly
all-time elite draft athlete for the position so someone’s gonna bite pretty
early.
Levi Onwuzurike – Has the tools, just doesn’t produce
enough. I think he’s Robert Nkimdeche without the insanity.
Christian Barmore – I don’t get Barmore as a top player.
Even Alabama never really committed to playing him. Some team is going to be
disappointed with their first round pick this year.
Johnathan Williams – Saw his RAS score and went to look.
He’s a productive SEC DT who put up one of the best Pro Day shows ever, and he
might not even be drafted. If you give him some daylight he will burst through
it and wreck the play, but too often he’s just not doing much of anything. I
have to think somebody will be enthralled with the athleticism though.
DE/EDGE:
Elerson Smith – Another small school player from Northern
Iowa (they must have wrecked shop this year), I am a huge fan of this guy. He’s
projected as a mid-round pick but I would not be shocked if he went 2nd
round or even snuck into the back end of the first. An elite athlete (as most
good edge rushers in the NFL are) with good burst off the snap, good bend and
great technique for a college edge rusher, this dude went into the Senior Bowl
and made some top OL from actual colleges look silly. On the negative he’s a
bit skinny for an edge rusher so he can get pushed around at times and not only
was he playing scrubs, there just isn’t that much tape available on him on the
Youtubes. I think he’s gonna be awesome though.
Joseph Ossai – We are now into the “just a guy” rushers that
you might see at the back end of the first round but that I didn’t really want
to put in there. Ossai is also an elite athlete but he’s got an inconsistent
burst at the snap and doesn’t really have any moves. He’s just running around
the arc. This is a bit of a project but it could work out and then you have
Brian Orakpo.
Gregory Rousseau – One of the toughest guys to gauge this
year. Weirdly skinny for the position, like Elerson Smith after a hunger
strike. Not a great athlete (he’s good but not great), not particularly
explosive, rather blockable at times, but he is super-raw (was a safety entering
Miami and really only played one year as an edge rusher), was insanely
productive considering he probably has no idea what he’s really doing, and you
see glimpses of ability that make you think that it could actually work. He has
an odd knack for finding his way through the line that I can’t really explain.
My bet is that he doesn’t work out in the NFL but I would understand using a 2nd
round pick to find out.
Joe Tryon – This guy is rated as a end of first/early 2nd
rounder and man you gotta be confident in your projections because there is a
lot of work to do. Seems to be really good at getting blocked.
Ronnie Perkins – If you need some edge rush depth, Ronnie
Perkins might functionally fill that spot on your roster. But I would be
stunned if he ever has a Pro Bowl caliber year in the NFL.
Jayson Oweh – The athletic projection to end all athletic
projections. An insaaaaane athlete who ran like a 4.35 at 260 lbs. He’s the
ultimate member of the Penn State track squad that James Franklin has assembled
in recent years. But he’s just so bad that it doesn’t really even make sense.
Yeah I get it, with some NFL coaching and those measurables if he hits he could
be a superstar. But I sure as hell would not be willing to take that chance
with a first round pick.
LBs:
Nick Bolton – If you wondered what Sean Spence would have
been without the severe injury, here’s your chance to find out. I could see
Bolton sneaking into the first and while I wouldn’t love it I probably wouldn’t
be too against it either.
Jamin Davis – Oh look, one of those twitched-up tackle
machines who makes every tackle 5 yards downfield because he has no idea what’s
going on. There’s late first round smoke with Jamin Davis right now because I
guess everyone already forgot about Kenneth Murray.
CB:
Paulson Adebo – I don’t know, maybe it was early in the
process, maybe I only saw the best this dude had to offer, but he looked like
an elite CB prospect. He almost looks to me like how everyone described Jeff
Okudah last year.
Caleb Farley – Alright, so everyone says he’s awesome and
he’s a top 10 talent and he’s going to be gone before the end of round 1. But I
guess I just don’t see teams tripping over themselves to draft a relatively raw
corner who has already had two back surgeries.
Greg Newsome II – Looks like an elite corner. Runs like one.
I just don’t see it though. He’s decent but I don’t want him in the first.
Jason Pinnock – I like Pinnock a lot IF he’s taken in the
middle of the draft somewhere. To me he’s like a flawed Richard Sherman. If he
improves a little bit in some areas I think he could be a Pro Bowl caliber
corner.
Safeties:
Disclaimer – It’s so hard to watch safeties on the TV tape
that is available on the Youtubes. Huge grains of salt with them every year.
Richie Grant – I really thought I’d have Trevon Moehrig as
the easy top safety but I think I like Grant more. Richie Grant may be more
boom-or-bust but I would probably rather bet on the boom.
Trevon Moehrig – Thought I would love this guy but his full
game tapes just didn’t wow me. He’s good, don’t get me wrong, but it seems like
he just doesn’t have the juice to get his body to where his brain is telling
him it should be. And the brain is right, but that alone could be the
difference between an average starter and an All-Pro.
